Gemini Launches Prediction Markets Across the United States: Betting on the Future Goes Mainstream
Gemini just flipped the switch on a financial experiment that could change how America gambles—on everything from elections to box office numbers. Prediction markets are officially here, and they're not hiding in crypto's dark corners anymore.
The New Casino in Town
Forget Vegas. Gemini's platform lets users stake digital assets on real-world outcomes. Will the Fed cut rates? Who wins the next election? Place your bets with crypto. It's speculative trading dressed up as civic engagement—or maybe the other way around.
Regulatory Tightrope Walk
Launching nationwide required navigating a minefield of state and federal rules. Gemini's move suggests regulators blinked, or at least squinted. It's a landmark moment for crypto infrastructure, proving some big players can play nice with the suits in Washington.
Why This Shakes the Game
Prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom—often scarily accurate. Bringing them mainstream injects crypto directly into the daily news cycle. Every political headline, every economic report becomes a potential trading signal. It turns spectators into speculators.
The Fine Print Nobody Reads
Yes, it's innovative. It's also a volatility engine. Users aren't just betting on crypto prices anymore; they're using crypto to bet on everything else. It layers risk upon risk—a classic finance move of creating a solution to a problem that didn't exist until the solution created new problems to solve.
Gemini isn't just launching a feature. It's inviting the entire U.S. to turn the news into a betting slip. Whether that's the future of finance or just the oldest human instinct with a blockchain receipt remains to be seen. One thing's certain: the house always wins—especially when the house is a regulated crypto exchange.
CFTC approval opens door to event trading
The nationwide rollout follows a key regulatory milestone. On December 10, Gemini received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The approval followed the licensing of its affiliate, Gemini Titan LLC, as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This allows Gemini to offer federally regulated, event-based trading products to US residents. The approval marked the completion of a regulatory process that began in 2020 and reflects growing acceptance of prediction markets under US federal oversight.
Gemini, launched by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has been widening the range of its crypto products after resolving the initial regulatory problems.
It was listed on the Nasdaq exchange in September and is now working on other forms of crypto derivatives like futures, options, and perpetual contracts due to the competition rising in prediction and event-based markets in the US.
Despite this regulatory development, shares of Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) went down following the press release. According to Yahoo Finance, these shares declined by 12.14% to close at $11.61 during regular market hours, while they dropped another 5.38% during aftermarket hours to close at $10.99.
Growing competition
Gemini’s MOVE comes as other major crypto and derivatives platforms advance into prediction markets. On December 12, Bitnomial Clearinghouse LLC, a subsidiary of US derivatives exchange Bitnomial, received CFTC approval to clear fully collateralized swaps. This approval enables Bitnomial to launch prediction markets under a single regulatory structure.
At the same time, Coinbase Global Inc., the leading digital asset exchange in the United States, is also lining up its entry into this market.
Coinbase Global Inc. is expected to launch the prediction market and stock tokens on December 17, 2025, at a livestream showcase event. These developments highlight growing competition and increasing acceptance of prediction markets in the US crypto and derivatives space.
Also Read: MetaMask Adds Native Bitcoin Support, Expanding Beyond Ethereum
