Polymarket Odds for Bitcoin Outperforming Gold in 2025 Plunge to 1% - A Wake-Up Call for Crypto Bulls

Prediction markets just slashed Bitcoin's 2025 gold-beating odds to a bleak 1%. That's not a typo—it's a brutal reality check for the digital asset narrative.

The Confidence Collapse

Polymarket's plunge from optimistic forecasts to near-zero probability signals a seismic shift in trader sentiment. Forget moonshots—the smart money now bets on traditional safe havens.

What the 1% Really Means

That single percentage point isn't just a number. It's a verdict on macroeconomic fears, regulatory overhangs, and Bitcoin's struggle to shake its 'risk-on' reputation when stability matters most.

Gold's Quiet Revenge

While crypto Twitter debates tokenomics, gold's doing what it's done for centuries—looking boringly reliable as uncertainty spikes. Sometimes the oldest tech in finance wins.

The market's message is clear: in the race for 2025's top asset, traders are betting on the metal that doesn't need software updates or survive on 'number go up' memes. A cynical take? Perhaps. But when prediction markets speak, even bulls should listen.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $90K, after experiencing a massive drop since October, losing over 10% of its value from its yearly high, while Gold is currently trading for $4,309 per ounce. The metal has managed to surge about 65% since the beginning of 2025, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $4,381 per ounce in October.

Gold surges amid strong demand 

The rise of Gold is a result of low interest rates and the strong demand from central banks. Central banks in China, India, and Turkey bought large amounts of gold to protect their reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

According to data from Discovery Alert, China alone managed to purchase about 27 tonnes of gold this year, while India bought 19 tonnes. The U.S. alone has exceeded 8,133 tonnes in its Gold reserve so far, making it the largest reserve in the world. Retail investors and institutions also joined in, buying gold coins and exchange-traded funds at record levels.

Bitcoin struggles after falling from $126K

Bitcoin began the year with Optimism after ending 2024 above $100k. It reached a new high record of $126K in October. However, by late November, it fell from $90K to $82K before bouncing back. This drop was a result of investors taking out their profits after the record high. This, together with leverage trading, put pressure on the market. During that period, about $2.2 billion in leverage trades got liquidated from the market, which affected over 400k traders. 

As superior asset classes, both Bitcoin and Gold have sharply diverged this year. While Gold continues to climb, Bitcoin has struggled. Bitcoin’s fall highlights the challenges of its “digital gold” narrative, as no central bank holds it officially, and regulators in many countries continue to restrict its use.

Although the token has a wide adoption from retail investors, with increased interest in corporate firms and institutions, other SAFE and less risky assets drew liquidity away from it, which leaves it vulnerable during market stress, while Gold remains a safe haven for investors.

Also Read: Bhutan Launches First State-Backed Gold Token on Solana