Bitcoin Must Lead the Charge Before Altcoins Can Rally, Wintermute Declares

The crypto market waits for Bitcoin's signal—altcoins remain in standby mode until the king moves.

Market makers whisper what traders know: No altseason until BTC breaks first.

Wintermute's analysis cuts through the hopium—proving once again that crypto runs on Bitcoin's schedule.

Meanwhile, altcoin bagholders recycle the same old 'this time it's different' narrative. Spoiler: It never is.

Market stability and narrow breadth

Bitcoin has been trading steadily between $105,000 and $107,000, while ethereum (ETH) is holding around $3,700. Both coins have managed to stay strong even though money is still leaving crypto ETFs. Some altcoins bounced back early in the week, but the recovery wasn’t even across the board. 

The GMCI-30 index went up by merely 0.7% while other sectors, such as DePIN projects (+22%), Layer-2 networks (+13%), mid-sized coins (+15%), and AI tokens (+9.6%) witnessed big jumps. DeFi tokens gained about 8.8%, while Layer-1s slipped by 1%, showing that investors are still being careful about where they put their money.

Moreover, Wintermute highlighted that market breadth remains extremely narrow. Only a few names, like Filecoin (FIL), Arweave (AR), and Fetch.AI (FET), carried most of the performance. “Narrative breakouts still feel forced,” the firm explained, suggesting that thin pockets of momentum remain fragile and prone to quick reversals. 

“This market cycle’s altseason is taking a different form,” Carola noted. “Broad, indiscriminate capital flows into all altcoins appear unlikely; instead, positioning is more calculated, selective, and data-driven compared to past cycles. Sustaining this momentum will depend on continued macro stabilization and liquidity support — both from monetary policy signals and ETF inflows into December.” 

Macro backdrop and institutional flows

The economic environment is still helping riskier assets. Interest rates are being cut, tightening has stopped, and global easing continues. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rate is dropping along with other policy moves. Still, crypto isn’t reacting as much. Speculative coins have lost some momentum, and rallies stay small and uneven. So, investors are sticking mostly with Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than smaller, riskier tokens. 

Historically, altcoins perform best when Bitcoin trades within 10–20% of its all-time high. At present, Bitcoin sits around 16% below its peak, meaning that spillover flows have not yet started. Wintermute’s data shows that when BTC drops closer to $100,000, the probability of it outperforming altcoins rises to 58%. Consequently, this suggests that the current setup favors majors, not smaller tokens.

The road ahead

A few blue-chip tokens—such as HYPE, ENA, and UNI—continue to outperform on relative strength, boosted by regulatory clarity and talk of U.S. market reopening. Still, the broader altcoin complex “trades like an options market,” Wintermute said, with short bursts of momentum and little follow-through. 

“If bitcoin consolidates above $105,000 and liquidity continues expanding, ETH could retest $4,000, SOL may challenge $180, and XRP could approach $2.5 by late November. Privacy tokens are also positioned to remain beneficiaries as long as self-custody and financial autonomy remain central market narratives,” Carola added. 

For the next phase, majors must lead. The structure looks cleaner, macro conditions are favorable, and the market feels ready to build again. Yet, the next wave of volatility will likely stem from U.S. policy and political headlines, not technical positioning.

Also Read: Zcash (ZEC) Price Crashes 25% as Market Hype Cools Down