Arthur Hayes Bets on Bitcoin Dip—Then a Rocket to $100K Post-NFP Shock
BitMEX's ex-CEO sees blood in the water—but only briefly. Hayes predicts a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' play as BTC braces for turbulence after the Non-Farm Payroll report.
The Setup:
Market sharks smell weakness. Liquidity crunches ahead of macro data? Textbook crypto volatility fuel.
The Punchline:
Hayes' $100K target hinges on post-NFP panic—because nothing pumps crypto like traders overreacting to jobs numbers they don't understand.
The Kick:
Wall Street still can't decide if Bitcoin's a risk asset or inflation hedge. Meanwhile, degenerates keep printing money on the confusion.
Risk assets sell off as Schiff reinforces ‘Bitcoin is not digital gold’
The crux of Arthur Hayes’ argument is rooted in macro liquidity. In his recent comment, he points to the spike in market volatility following the weaker-than-expected NFP, with risk assets selling off hard as traders rush to reprice interest rate expectations and the path ahead for Federal Reserve policy. For the crypto market, this unfolding reset spells trouble in the short term.
Bitcoin led the crypto downturn but managed to show relative strength compared to altcoins, which were hit even harder. Hayes points out that liquidity is being drained from markets as traders brace for further turbulence. Forced liquidations and margin calls are accelerating the move lower, with $172 million in bitcoin long positions wiped out across exchanges in a 24-hour window as prices stumbled.
Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff wasted no opportunity to dunk on the number-one digital asset while praising the virtues of gold, commenting:
“Days like today make it clear that Bitcoin is not digital gold. We got bad economic news that sent gold and the Japanese yen up 2.2% and the euro up 1.5%. The NASDAQ went the other way, falling 2.2%. Bitcoin tanked 3%, tracking high-risk assets lower, not SAFE havens higher.”
Arthur Hayes is repositioning his assets
In the early hours of August 2, Hayes offloaded 2,373 ETH ($8.32 million), 7.76 million ENA ($4.62 million), and 38.86 billion PEPE ($414,700), causing a flurry of comments among the crypto community, most notably, ethereum bulls who pointed out that Hayes had only recently been advocating for a $10K ETH. One follower commented:
“Classic Arthur shilling and dumping at the same time. Never fails.”
Hayes has been right before, predicting a BTC drop to $70,000 earlier in the current cycle when Optimism and leverage were at fever pitch.
In April 2024, as Bitcoin scaled all-time highs and market euphoria peaked, Hayes issued a warning that the tides WOULD soon turn, again calling out warning signs in liquidity, U.S. macro data, and the growing risks from overextended leverage in derivatives markets. Despite offloading ETH showing near-term caution, Hayes’ long-term view remains bullish.
