Bitcoin Eyes $141K Surge—If It Smashes Through the $105K-$125K Resistance Box

Bitcoin's next bull run could send shockwaves through Wall Street—if it punches past its current trading range.

The king of crypto has been coiling between $105,000 and $125,000, but technical analysts whisper about a potential breakout toward $141,000. That’d make today’s prices look like a Black Friday discount—assuming the whales don’t dump their bags first.

When resistance becomes support

History suggests Bitcoin loves round numbers—both as psychological barriers and launchpads. The $105K-$125K zone isn’t just another resistance level; it’s the make-or-break moment for this cycle’s parabolic dreams.

Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits clutch their pearls. ‘But the fundamentals!’ they cry—right before FOMO-ing into the rally at ATH prices.

Surviving the weekend stress test

The report also highlighted that the weekend stress test passed. Network liquidity absorbed one of the cycle’s largest distribution events as an early investor, via Galaxy Digital, moved roughly $9.6 billion worth of Bitcoin across market and OTC venues.

The spot price fell to $115,000 before stabilizing near $118,000, indicating market depth even during thin weekend hours.

The report estimated that the Realized Cap, which is dollar-denominated liquidity embedded in the chain, is at over $1 trillion, a scale that helps explain the swift stabilization.

Furthermore, FLOW metrics spiked around the event. Net Realized Profit/Loss hit a record $3.7 billion, while realized profits exceeded losses by a 571x multiple. These levels are seen on only 1.5% of days.

The report cautioned that extreme profit‑taking often precedes local exhaustion but doesn’t always immediately mark a top, as prior peaks have followed with a lag.

Rotating capital

Holder rotation is still in positive breadth. Long‑Term Holder Net Realized P/L surged to an all‑time high $2.5 billion, the largest single sell‑side print on record, as Long-Term Holders (LTH) distributed into strength.

The LTH/STH supply ratio has contracted 11% in 30 days, mirroring distribution waves seen near each all-time high this cycle.

Nevertheless, more than 97% of supply remains in profit, aggregate unrealized profits reached $1.4 trillion, and unrealized profit as a share of market cap is back above levels representing a blend of euphoria, risk, and demand tailwind.

LTHs still hold 53% of network wealth, leaving additional supply that could unlock at higher prices.

Cost‑basis distribution shows a high‑volume node at $117k-$122k and a low‑volume “air‑gap” at $115k-$110k that the market may re‑test on weakness.

Within STH sub-cohorts, the 24-hour to 3-month ribbon sits $110k-$117k, reinforcing that area as first support.

Until buyers clear $125K with conviction, the $105k-$125k range holds.