Bitcoin & Crypto’s 2025 Second Half: The Bull Run, Black Swans, and Everything Between

Brace for impact—the crypto rollercoaster's next drop is coming. With Bitcoin halfway through 2025 trading at levels that'd make 2021 bulls blush, the market's either priming for escape velocity or a spectacular reckoning.

The Halving Hangover (Or Catalyst?)

Fourteen months post-halving, Bitcoin's supply crunch should be biting. But with institutional ETFs now swallowing supply like a black hole, price discovery could turn violent—in either direction.

Altcoin Armageddon or Renaissance?

Ethereum's latest upgrade either 'solved scalability' or kicked the can further—as usual. Meanwhile, the SEC's war on 'non-Bitcoin' tokens leaves altcoins walking a tightrope between innovation and extinction.

The Macro Wildcard

When the Fed finally blinks on rates, crypto will moon. Unless they don't. Or unless traditional markets crash so hard even crypto can't ignore the correlation (again).

One hedge fund manager yawns: 'We'll either be buying lambos or canned goods by December.' Typical finance guys—always hedging even their apocalyptic takes.

Bitcoin treasury companies boom

Since Trump signed an executive order in March to create a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve, several Bitcoin treasury companies have emerged. A Bitcoin Treasury company holds a major chunk of its reserve assets in BTC.

While Michael Saylor-led Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been following the model for years, companies like Metaplanet and Twenty One have become new entrants. Last week, Saylor said that Bitcoin Treasury companies have potential for exponential growth—they can grow as fast as they can issue security and buy BTC.

Companies like Coinbase and Universal Digital Inc. have also announced plans for creating a BTC treasury. Last month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighted Trump-owned TRUMP Media and Technology Group’s $2.3 billion Bitcoin Treasury deal.

Bitcoin treasury companies are popping up across all major global economies and this trend is likely to continue in the second half of 2025, Stephen Cole, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin treasury solution provider Castle, told Investopedia. Cole stated:

“The latter half of 2025 will mark a pivotal moment for bitcoin’s adoption as a treasury asset, driven by a convergence of global market trends, shifting corporate strategies, and institutional validation.”

Cole added that “the question of whether to acquire Bitcoin is quickly going from if to when” for all corporations, irrespective of their size. In fact, by the end of 2025, Cole expects several major tech giants to begin buying BTC and defining their allocation strategies.

Altcoins will still have a role to play

Despite the rise in Bitcoin Treasury companies, demand for altcoins is likely to continue for the rest of the year. David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, told Investopedia that despite access to BTC becoming easier, altcoins that have a “strong and distinct fundamental value proposition” will continue to perform well. Lawant added:

“Regulatory shifts such as the crypto market structure bill and a more permissive stance toward decentralized finance (DeFi) experimentation could unlock powerful new trends.”

Crypto ETFs and IPOs

With the SEC adopting a more friendly approach to cryptocurrencies under the Trump administration, more ETFs are likely to get approved by the end of the year. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said:

“I think we will see the vast majority, if not all, of the currently filed 19b-4s obtain approval by the end of the year. That includes in-kind [redemptions] and staking and something like 10 individual assets [that have] attempted to get an ETF.”

A number of crypto companies have also gone public since the start of 2025, with Circle’s IPO exceeding expectations with 475% stock price growth in less than a month. Gemini has also confidentially filed for an IPO, while there are reports of OKX potentially going public. The trend is likely to continue for the rest of the year.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price

Most analysts are bullish about the prospects of the BTC price in the second half of 2025. “Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year channel,” pseudonymous BTC analyst Stockmoney Lizards recently noted on X. He added that he expects BTC price to cross $200,000 by the end of the year.

Bitwise Asset Management has also stuck to its initial prediction of $200,000 BTC price by the end of 2025, although the firm is less sure about Ethereum’s ability to recover. Standard Chartered has also reiterated the $200,000 BTC price prediction.

As for Ethereum, while the future looks uncertain, it may not be time to give up yet. Lawant believes that the increasing launch of spot ETH ETFs, coupled with the fact that it remains “underowned by many institutional investors,” means that there is “meaningful room for a catch-up.”