Bitcoin Nears ATH While USD Crashes to 3-Year Lows—Here’s Why It Matters

Bitcoin's knocking on the door of its all-time high again—just as the dollar tanks to levels not seen since 2022. Coincidence? Traders aren’t buying it.

The inverse correlation playbook

When the greenback stumbles, crypto often rallies. This time? No exception. Bitcoin’s acting like the anti-dollar—up 18% this month while the DXY index craters. Hedge funds are piling in, retail FOMO is brewing, and your uncle who ‘doesn’t trust crypto’ is suddenly asking about wallet security.

Institutional déjà vu

The same macro forces that drove 2021’s bull run are back: inflation jitters, Fed pivot hopes, and that sweet, sweet liquidity sloshing around. Only now, BlackRock’s ETF inflows could make last cycle’s institutional adoption look like a dress rehearsal.

Watch the exits

Yes, Wall Street’s playing nice with crypto—for now. But remember: these are the same geniuses who brought you ‘2008: The Musical.’ When they start whispering about ‘hedge against dollar weakness,’ check your wallet balance twice.

Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Outlook

Some see the dollar’s decline as a tailwind for Bitcoin. Digital asset manager Bitwise maintains ayear-end price target for BTC, arguing that deliberate dollar weakening could push more capital into alternative stores of value.

Others remain skeptical. While corporations, institutions, and government entities are acquiring or holding Bitcoin now, on-chain activity is nowhere near 2021 levels. Active wallets, Lightning Network volume, and transaction numbers have all declined. Bitcoin in 2025 is not about everyday individuals using it for payments or even acquiring. Instead, we’re seeing a value transfer away from retail users to institutions, with a key focus on the United States.

Bitcoin’s price is not necessarily under threat from this on-chain apathy anymore. However, if bitcoin becomes nothing more than a place for the wealthiest companies and individuals in society to park their wealth, then are we really doing justice to Satoshi’s legacy? ‘Number go up’ is great for all those who bought Bitcoin early, but should ‘freedom money’ really be hoarded by the billionaire class?

Outstanding Questions

The evolving BTC–USD story leaves key questions unresolved:

• What level of DXY decline historically triggers large Bitcoin moves?
• Are U.S. corporations adding Bitcoin to treasury reserves as a dollar hedge?
• Could a sharp rebound in the dollar spark a Bitcoin sell-off?
• How are stablecoin flows like USDT and USDC reflecting shifts in dollar sentiment?

For now, investors will be watching closely as the dollar’s trajectory and the Federal Reserve’s next moves shape the narrative for Bitcoin in the second half of 2025.

Key Figures (as of 27 Jun 2025):

• BTC Spot Price: $107,639 (▲ 9.8% YTD, ▲ 3.1% monthly)
• BTC All-Time High: $109,482 (21 May 2025)
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.10 (▼ 10.0% YTD, ▼ 2.3% monthly)
• BTC–DXY 90-day correlation: –0.34