Bitcoin’s Quantum Doomsday Clock Is Ticking—VanEck Says Adapt or Die
Quantum computing could crack Bitcoin’s cryptography like a walnut—and VanEck warns the network’s got a razor-thin window to evolve. Tick-tock.
The Encryption Arms Race
Current SHA-256 algorithms might as well be wet paper against quantum brute force. The fix? Post-quantum cryptography—but deploying it demands coordinated upgrades across nodes, miners, and wallets. Good luck herding those cats.
Wall Street’s Schrödinger’s Bitcoin
Institutional investors are still piling into BTC ETFs while quietly hedging with quantum-resistant altcoins. Because nothing says ’confidence’ like betting on both the apocalypse and the moon.
Survival hinges on whether Bitcoin’s decentralized cult can move faster than a lab-coated adversary with a 1,000-qubit machine. Place your bets.
‘Window of uncertainty’
Despite believing in the ability of Bitcoin to adapt in the long run, Sigel highlighted that miners, node operators, and wallet providers must decide to run code deployed by Core developers.
That coordination historically spans years, as seen with SegWit and Taproot. “Any upgrade WOULD require careful coordination across the community,” Sigel wrote, adding that some users already test post-quantum wallets, yet no broad agreement exists.
Because full-scale quantum hardware may arrive with little warning, Sigel identifies the primary hazard as the period between the first credible demonstration and Bitcoin’s network-wide migration to a new signature scheme.
He warned:
The analyst added that VanEck has begun studying quantum-computing equities in one of its internal funds, and the firm’s European arm launched a Quantum Technologies UCITS ETF last week, which tracks hardware and software vendors.
Furthermore, Sigel referred to Elon Musk’sthat X will feature “Bitcoin-level encryption.”
Sigel wrote that Musk may reference Bitcoin Improvement Proposals 151 and 324, which encrypt peer-to-peer traffic but do not alter signature math. He said the remark shows Bitcoin’s present model still rates as strong until quantum machines cross the threshold.
