Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Bitcoin’s Encryption Now 95% Easier to Crack—But Don’t Panic Yet
Quantum computing just got a lot scarier for crypto maximalists. Google’s latest research slashes the computational power needed to break Bitcoin’s encryption by a staggering 95%—but before you dump your stack, remember: the tech is still a decade away from being weaponized.
Here’s the kicker: Wall Street will probably spin this as ’imminent doom’ to justify another round of pointless ’quantum-resistant’ blockchain ETFs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s codebase could evolve faster than the threat. Stay long, stay skeptical.
Bitcoin’s quantum computing frailties
The revelations arrive as concerns grow over the pace of quantum computing development. Last year, Google introduced its Willow chip, a next-generation quantum processor that many believe brought real-world threats to digital security closer than previously assumed.
In response, major financial institutions are updating their disclosures. For example, BlackRock recently flagged quantum computing as a material risk for its Bitcoin ETF product, IBIT.
According to the firm:
“If quantum computing technology is able to advance and significantly increase its capacity relative to the capacity of today’s leading quantum computers, it could potentially undermine the viability of many of the cryptographic algorithms used across the world’s information technology infrastructure, including the cryptographic algorithms used for digital assets like Bitcoin.”
This shift reflects growing awareness that technological breakthroughs could challenge Bitcoin’s foundational encryption earlier than anticipated.
Despite the concern, some experts believe the crypto sector still has time to adapt to the potential risks.
Today’s logical-qubit demos top out at dozens (e.g., Quantinuum’s 12 logical qubits). Gidney’s 1,000,000-qubit figure is about physical (noisy) qubits, not logical. We’re three orders of magnitude away in sheer qubit count, and need major error-rate breakthroughs.
Even the physical-qubit goal is likely 8–12 years out, and a true million-logical-qubit machine is decades away.
| IBM “Condor” (superconducting) | 1,121 | First >1 k-qubit chip, still noisy |
| Atom Computing (neutral atoms) | >1,000 | Prototype announced in March 2025 |
| Google “Willow” (superconducting) | 105 | Record low error rates, crosses QEC “threshold” |
| Quantinuum H2 (trapped ions) | 56 | High-fidelity ion trap; Microsoft used it to build 12 logical qubits |
| D-Wave Advantage 2 (annealer) | 1,200 | Not a universal machine, can’t run Shor’s algorithm |
Meanwhile, bitcoin analyst Fred Krueger believes the emergence of a “quantum-resistant” version of the top crypto is inevitable.
He anticipates a network split between a newly fortified Bitcoin and a legacy version, similar to how ethereum split into ETH and Ethereum Classic.
He stated:
“Ulimately there will be a fork. ‘Quantum Resistant Bitcoin (QRB)’ and ‘Bitcoin Classic.’ The big money will recognize and push QRB. Some will fight it. Bitcoin Classic (BTC) will become the new Ethereum Classic.”
Still, if Bitcoin becomes vulnerable in eight years, the network will not have long to adopt a quantum-resistant upgrade.
