XRP ETFs Gobble Up Nearly $1 Billion in 18 Days—So Why Is the Price Flashing Red?

Institutional money is flooding in, but the charts are screaming caution.

The ETF Stampede

Nearly a billion dollars. That's what fresh XRP exchange-traded funds vacuumed up in just over two weeks. The narrative writes itself: Wall Street finally gets it, the dam has broken, and regulated capital is here to stay. The ticker tape tells a story of overwhelming demand, the kind that's supposed to send prices into the stratosphere.

The Price's Silent Scream

Yet, XRP's price action isn't playing along. Instead of a moon shot, the technicals are painting a different picture—one of distribution, not accumulation. Key support levels are getting tested, not broken to the upside. It's the classic market disconnect: fundamental inflows versus technical weakness. The smart money might be buying the ETF wrapper, but they're not necessarily buying the breakout.

The Cynic's Corner

Here's the finance jab: since when did a fund manager's quarterly inflow target ever been a reliable buy signal for the underlying asset? They get paid to gather assets, not time the market. The ETF can be a roaring success on paper while the token itself treads water—or worse.

So, we're left with a billion-dollar question. Is this the calm before the storm, where institutional accumulation finally overpowers retail skepticism? Or is it a warning that even a tidal wave of new money can't fix a broken technical setup? The tape, for now, is leaning toward the latter. Don't confuse product success with price performance.

The off-chain holder

Earlier this week, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse described this new cohort of investors as “off-chain crypto holders,” a label that captures investors who want volatility exposure without the operational demands of exchanges or self-custody.

These are users who buy XRP the same way they purchase exposure to the S&P 500. This means that this cohort purchases the funds through regulated wrappers, custodial intermediaries, and tax-advantaged accounts.

This group cannot be attributed to any single brokerage’s policy change, and certainly not to recent decisions by firms like Vanguard, whose adjustments are too recent to have influenced the multi-week FLOW streak.

Instead, the shift reflects a broader, slower development: digital assets are becoming more accessible inside the conventional brokerage stack. As more platforms treat crypto ETFs as standard portfolio ingredients, capital is arriving from investors with lower sensitivity to daily price movements.

That helps explain the XRP ETF complex’s “perfect game” of inflows. Traditional ETF buyers, who are allocators inside 401(k) programs, advisers managing multi-asset portfolios, and individual investors using automated model strategies, tend to contribute steadily and sell sparingly.

Once XRP is sitting in a retirement account or as part of a monthly contribution plan, short-term news Flow typically does not trigger redemptions.

So, for the first time in XRP’s history, a large share of demand is coming from buyers who have little interest in timing volatility.

Two markets, two behaviors

The steady inflows, however, disguise a deeper tension. If nearly $1 billion has entered XRP ETFs in less than a month, why is the asset trading around $2.09, roughly 20% down over the last 30 days?

In a vacuum, these flows might have forced the price sharply higher. However, the fact that XRP remains range-bound suggests ETF demand is being met by sellers elsewhere.

Derivatives markets help clarify the picture. Binance perpetual futures have shown persistent sell-side aggression, with CryptoQuant data putting the Taker Sell Ratio at 0.53, the highest level since mid-November.

That reading indicates more market-sell orders than buys, signaling that traders are hitting bids rather than waiting for better levels.

At the same time, Glassnode data shows futures open interest has collapsed from 1.7 billion XRP in early October to about 0.7 billion XRP, a 59% drawdown.

Notably, the token’s funding rates have also compressed sharply. Its seven-day moving average has fallen from roughly 0.01% to 0.001%, marking a clear cooling of XRP’s speculative appetite.

Together, these data points describe a market in retreat on the speculative side. The October deleveraging flushed out a large share of Leveraged longs, and the subdued funding environment indicates little urgency to rebuild aggressive upside positions.

Against that backdrop, the ETF bid is functioning less as a catalyst and more as a buffer by absorbing supply that might otherwise have driven the price materially lower.

The stability around $2 suggests the two markets are offsetting one another: passive inflows countering active, exchange-driven outflows.

This dual structure is new for XRP. Historically, its price was almost entirely a function of crypto-native behavior, such as exchange flows, derivatives positioning, and sentiment cycles.

However, the arrival of ETF buyers has created a second center of gravity, one governed by slower-moving mandates rather than speculative timing.

A decoupled XRP Ledger

While Wall Street capital circulates through ETF shares, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is undergoing its own adjustments.

CryptoSlate previously reported that XRPL’s network velocity, the rate at which tokens MOVE between wallets, hit a yearly high of 0.0324 on Dec. 2, suggesting heightened transactional turnover.

Yet Glassnode data shows that total fees paid on the network have fallen by about 89% since February, from 5,900 XRP per day to roughly 650 XRP.

This combination of rising velocity and falling fees is typical of an environment in which liquidity providers, automated market makers, or exchange-linked actors are efficiently repositioning assets rather than conducting high-value settlement.

It reflects the widening gap between financial demand, as expressed through ETFs, and operational demand, as expressed on-chain. The ledger remains active, but the price discovery mechanism is increasingly anchored in off-chain, regulated markets rather than native utility.

Notably, the ETF’s expanding lineup of issuers reinforces that trend. Canary Capital, Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and, most recently, 21Shares have turned XRP into one of the most competitive ETF verticals of the year.

Each new listing deepens the asset’s presence inside traditional brokerage workflows, increasing the share of demand coming from investors who may never interact with the underlying network.

What do we learn from this?

What is emerging is a dual-track market.

On one track is the passive allocator, which is steady, rules-based, and primarily insensitive to volatility. On the other hand is the crypto-native trader who is responsive to funding dynamics, leverage conditions, and tactical flows.

XRP’s unprecedented string of ETF inflows, paired with a sharp contraction in derivative positioning, shows the two groups moving in opposite directions.

For now, the inflows are strong enough to counter the unwind in speculative interest. However, the question is how long that balance can hold. Should ETF flows moderate or derivatives selling accelerate, the equilibrium now anchoring the asset could fracture.

Until then, XRP offers a rare case study of what happens when Main Street retirement accounts and crypto-native volatility collide.