DC Flips the Liquidity Switch – How the Fed’s Money Printer Roars Back to Life for Your Bitcoin Stack

Washington just hit the turbo button on dollar debasement—again. Here’s why your satoshis are grinning.

The Firehose Is Back On

Quantitative easing? More like quantitative screaming. The Fed’s balance sheet ballooned by $300B in October alone—classic ‘temporary’ intervention that’ll outlast your gym membership.

Bitcoin’s Asymmetrical Bet

Every fresh dollar minted is another log on bitcoin’s scarcity bonfire. The math won’t bend: 21 million coins vs. infinite fiat dilution. Even Wall Street’s pet ETFs can’t fake this demand curve.

Watch the Rotating Doors

DC deploys ‘stimulus’ like a drunk Uber driver—random turns, sudden stops, and someone’s always left holding the bag. This time? Your Treasury bonds. Bitcoin just keeps cruising in the HOV lane.

The real question isn’t if this ends badly—it’s whether you’ll be holding digital gold or bureaucratic IOUs when the music stops.

Why the data restart matters for Bitcoin liquidity

For crypto, reopening matters because it flips the macro data pipeline back on, sets Treasury supply back to a predictable cadence, and clarifies the near-term path for real rates that influence Bitcoin risk appetite and spot ETF flows.

During the closure, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis paused some releases. The Labor Department had prepared to suspend major prints if the shutdown persisted.

The near-term calendar now includes the October CPI release on Thursday, Nov. 13, at 08:30 ET, alongside the Real Earnings release at the same time. PPI is scheduled for release on November 14, with the Import and Export Price Indexes due on November 18.

These releases reset the market’s data-dependence, pulling rate bets and the dollar back toward inflation and labor inputs rather than fiscal headlines. For Bitcoin, the hinge remains the 10-year real yield.

Digesting macro noise as Bitcoin price now relies on legacy plumbing

The 10-year TIPS-implied real yield stands at 1.83%, higher than the mid-year level. A benign CPI print would tend to ease real yields and financial conditions, a backdrop that has supported risk assets and coincided with tighter ETF spreads and improved secondary-market depth for crypto.

Treasury supply entered the week under a steady design. The quarterly refunding holds coupon sizes at $125 billion across the 3-, 10-, and 30-year notes and bonds, with roughly $26.8 billion in new cash raised. Auction timings are on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.

According to the Treasury’s refunding statement, officials plan to hold coupon rates steady for several quarters, utilize bills and cash management bills for flexibility, and continue buybacks to support market functioning.

That path limits the chance of a near-term term-premium shock as operations resume, which keeps CPI as the dominant driver of duration.

Nominal 10-year yields trade NEAR 4.1% in early November, and with CPI back on time, the interaction between issuance and data will likely set the tone for rates through week’s end.

To frame the plumbing, the Treasury General Account closed around $943 billion on November 7, according to YCharts, which is elevated relative to 2024 and provides a cushion as auctions normalize. A high and rising TGA is a headwind to bank reserves, while a draw or softer rebuild can be a quiet tailwind to risk.

With coupons steady, bills remain the lever for cash management. If reopening creates room for a slow TGA draw through month-end, that would be liquidity-positive at the margin, particularly if it coincides with easing real yields following the CPI release.

Spot bitcoin ETF flows remain the other swing factor. Global crypto ETFs brought in record amounts at the start of October as Bitcoin surged to new highs, before activity waned and U.S. funds experienced net outflows into early November.

According to Kaiko data, order book depth has improved significantly compared to 2022–23, with lower slippage for larger ticket sizes.

Deeper books amplify macro-led moves because incremental flows transmit more cleanly, particularly when ETF creations or redemptions align with cross-asset shifts in rates and the dollar.

Three macro paths for Bitcoin liquidity as CPI returns

With the CR unlocking the calendar, the next 1–2 weeks narrow to three paths. If CPI lands at or below consensus and the refunding clears without friction, real 10-year yields could drift toward the 1.6–1.7% area, the dollar could soften, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could pivot to modest net inflows.

High-frequency allocators tend to re-engage when the data path is visible, and a slower TGA rebuild would support net liquidity. If CPI runs hot and the Treasury leans on bills to rebuild cash, real yields could press above 1.9%, ETF outflows could resume, and crypto would trade defensively with a stronger beta to real yields.

A process-noise outcome is also possible if House passage wobbles or if CPI arrives with quirks tied to the publication backlog, in which case flows may chop. At the same time, desks watch issuance calendars and buyback schedules for signaling.

For readers tracking the mechanics, the following issuance detail is live for this week’s refunding and serves as a clean reference for supply against CPI:

According to the Treasury, the steady-for-several-quarters stance covers these sizes, with the caveat that officials are evaluating future increases as needed. That message limits near-term uncertainty around coupon duration, which puts CPI at the center of this week’s rates impulse.

With real yields still elevated, the crypto tape is poised for a binary response driven by the inflation surprise and the direction of the dollar.