Arthur Hayes Predicts $1M Bitcoin Surge If Trump’s Fed Nominee Gets Confirmed
Bitcoin's bull case just got a nuclear accelerator—courtesy of Washington.
Hayes' Million-Dollar Bet
Arthur Hayes, crypto's most vocal macro thinker, just dropped a bombshell prediction: Bitcoin hitting $1,000,000. The trigger? A Trump-appointed Federal Reserve chair who gets confirmed. No vague timelines—just pure political catalyst meets monetary revolution.
Policy Meets Portfolio
This isn't theory—it's tactical. A dovish Fed nominee means looser money, weaker dollars, and harder assets. Bitcoin becomes the ultimate hedge against monetary incompetence. Traders know the playbook: buy rumors of money printing, sell news of inflation.
The Cynical Take
Wall Street’s still arguing about inflation targets while Bitcoin’s coding the exit ramp. Guess some would rather debate yield curves than own a winning trade.
Ready for the regime change?
A New Direction for the Fed?
Miran was confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board by a narrow 48-47 vote on September 16. Parts of the crypto community celebrated the move right away, with some pointing out that the economist had said good things about Bitcoin in the past. In a 2023 post that commentators talked about, Miran wrote, “Bitcoin fixes this,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency could address problems with the traditional financial system.
Because of this history, there are those who believe that he could make the central bank more open to digital assets. More importantly, Miran recently discussed the Fed’s statutory responsibility to pursue “moderate long-term interest rates,” a concept being framed by some media outlets as a potential “third mandate” alongside price stability and maximum employment.
As reported by Bloomberg on September 16, this has forced bond traders to reconsider established market rules, with some analysts viewing it as a step toward direct intervention in the bond market to control yields.
Hayes’ Macro Thesis and Market Performance
Hayes has latched on to this political change, saying it could lead to aggressive monetary expansion. In a recent post on X, the crypto entrepreneur also argued that the recognition of the third mandate is basically a type of yield curve control, which is when a central bank sets a specific yield for government bonds.
“With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed’s ‘third mandate,’ which is essentially yield curve control,” claimed Hayes.
He added that this policy could push bitcoin to a million bucks, saying:
“YCC -> $BTC = $1m.”
This fits with his bigger view of the economy, which he talked about in a recent interview with influencer Kyle Chassé. In that sit-down, he stated that rigid four-year crypto cycles were no longer applicable. Instead, the Maelstrom CIO asserted that continued fiscal stimulus and money printing from global central banks, driven by political needs, will create a tidal wave of liquidity that benefits hard assets like Bitcoin.
He laid out his optimistic outlook even as the premier cryptocurrency itself demonstrated notable strength. At the time of writing, BTC had gained a solid 5.1% over the last seven days, pushing it past $117,000. Furthermore, the asset has climbed 5.9% over the past two weeks, though its monthly gains remain modest at 1.7%. It sits just 5.6% below its all-time high of $124,457 set on August 14.
Whether Miran’s presence at the Fed accelerates Bitcoin’s trajectory remains uncertain. However, the convergence of U.S. fiscal expansion, looming rate cuts, with the CME FedWatch assigning a 96% probability of a 25 basis-point cut, and growing institutional appetite for the OG cryptocurrency suggests the macro backdrop might favor Hayes’ bold call.
