Bitcoin Holds Firm While Bullish Signals Flash Green – Bitfinex Alpha Report

Bitcoin's price stability masks a brewing storm of bullish momentum—just as Wall Street starts pretending they 'always believed' in crypto.

The calm before the FOMO?

While BTC trades sideways, on-chain metrics and derivatives data scream accumulation. Whales are loading up, retail lurks at the sidelines, and leveraged shorts look increasingly precarious.

Liquidity crunch incoming?

Tightening supply meets institutional demand—a classic setup for volatility. The only question is whether traditional finance will front-run the rally or get left holding bags again.

One thing's certain: when this dam breaks, even the skeptics will suddenly remember their 'long-term conviction.'

Bulls In Structural Control

According to this week’s Bitfinex Alpha report, the bitcoin market has been defending the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) of $98,220 despite recent volatility. Although BTC has fallen below range lows in recent weeks, the asset has found support at the STHRP.

Analysts termed this a constructive signal, indicating that bulls remain in structural control. Bitcoin’s resilience also supports the belief that underlying momentum is skewed to the bullish side.

The STH cost basis has been rising and is now hovering around  $99,474, indicating persistent accumulation by newer market participants. This cohort of investors is led by institutional buyers purchasing BTC through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and balance sheet allocations.

Amid this consolidation phase, Bifinex says bitcoin’s short-term momentum is weakening at range highs. Futures market traders have been closing their positions around levels seen between July 2 and 4. This suggests that while bulls are in structural control, they are unable to trigger and sustain significant price rallies. Hence, the market is still in need of fresh catalysts or clearer macroeconomic signals before prices can surge.

BTC Whales Are Redistributing

Meanwhile, BTC whales are in a distribution phase. Since July 4, mid-sized wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been slashing their holdings. With more than 14,000 BTC offloaded since June 30, the market is witnessing a cautious stance among high-cap investors.

As whales continue to redistribute amid macro uncertainty, retail and institutional investors are absorbing the supply. So far this month, STHs have increased their collective holdings by more than 382,000 BTC, nearly the same amount as was offloaded by long-term holders. Their purchases have been driving market momentum this month.

“This divergence points to a redistribution of coins from crypto natives to newer entrants and institutions, many likely motivated by recent price dips and renewed macro interest following the strong performance of the equities markets,” Bitfinex stated.