$3.9B Crypto Options Expiry: Will It Fuel the Next Market Surge or Trigger a Correction?

Crypto traders are bracing for impact as $3.9 billion in options contracts approach expiry—will this unleash a tidal wave of volatility or just another overhyped non-event?

The ticking time bomb. With billions hanging in the balance, market makers are scrambling to hedge their exposures. Expect fireworks—or at least some decent memes—as these derivatives mature.

Bull vs. bear battleground. Open interest data reveals a fierce tug-of-war between call and put holders. Whoever wins this high-stakes poker game could dictate short-term price action.

Liquidity crunch incoming. When this much notional value gets unwound, even the deepest order books tend to wobble. Market depth hasn't looked this thin since the last 'generational buying opportunity' (that turned into a 40% drawdown).

The real question isn't whether there'll be movement—it's whether anyone can actually predict the direction. Place your bets, degenerates.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s tranche of bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 1.16, meaning that there are more short sellers than longs, but not by much. There is also a max pain point of $106,000, around $1,500 above current spot prices, which is where most losses will be made on contract expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at strike prices between $115,000 and $140,000, with more than $1.7 billion at each price, as bullish speculators remain confident, according to Deribit.

Options Expiry Alert

Tomorrow, about $3.9B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.3B notional | Put/Call: 1.16 | Max Pain: $106K$ETH: $546M notional | Put/Call: 0.68 | Max Pain: $2,600

BTC shows more balanced positioning NEAR max pain, while ETH flows… pic.twitter.com/hBKVTcodeP

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) June 19, 2025

In its weekly market update, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said the group shows a “predominantly bearish sentiment,” with traders maintaining short positions and watching key support levels at $104,000 and $100,000.

“There’s significant concern about altcoins being ‘dead’ if $104K is lost, with geopolitical tensions around Iran adding to market uncertainty.”

They added that traders are forced to “flip sides fast in these choppy choppity chop chop times” as traditional gamma strategies underperform.

In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, there are around 215,000 ethereum contracts that are also expiring, with a notional value of $546 million, a max pain point of $2,600, and a put/call ratio of 0.68. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $3.9 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization has fallen a further 2% on the day to $3.37 trillion, but it remains within a range-bound channel that formed in early May.

Bitcoin has been flat over the past 24 hours with a slight dip to $104,600 at the time of writing. However, it has fallen 3.8% from its weekly high of $108,770 on Tuesday, but support levels continue to hold despite the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Ethereum prices are also holding above support at $2,500, and the asset has moved very little over the past 48 hours.

The altcoins were mostly flat, with only Bitcoin Cash (BCH) gaining 7.7% while there were losses for Hyperliquid, dropping 4.8% on the day.