Bitcoin Scarcity Shock: Why Surging Ancient BTC Supply Signals a Supply Crunch

The Bitcoin vaults are creaking open—but not enough to meet demand. As 'ancient' BTC supply surges, the market faces a paradox: more coins moving, yet fewer available. Here's why.

HODLers Won't Budge

Long-term holders are clinging tighter than a Wall Street banker to bailouts. The skyrocketing supply of untouched BTC—coins dormant for years—reveals a market starving for liquidity. When diamond hands won't sell, price discovery gets violent.

The Scarcity Accelerator

Every 'ancient' coin that re-enters circulation gets snapped up faster than a VC's seed round. With institutional demand now mainstream, the real squeeze hasn't even begun. Tick tock, next halving.

Warning Lights for Exchanges

Thin order books meet frothy demand—a recipe for the kind of volatility that makes TradFi brokers reach for the Xanax. When the OGs start spending, it's either a local top or the calm before the storm.

The Irony? This scarcity play makes goldbugs look like day traders. Bitcoin's proving its hardest-money credentials by becoming...harder to get. (Meanwhile, the Fed's still printing.)

Bitcoin’s Ancient Supply Growing

The ancient supply currently exceeds 3.4 million BTC, which is around 17% of the total supply, and it continues to grow daily in a dynamic that shifted after the 2024 halving.

Additionally, Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins account for around a third of the ancient supply, but a portion is likely lost.

However, since the 2024 US election, ancient supply has declined more frequently, suggesting some long-term holders are moving coins or taking profit in response to market uncertainty.

The research also noted that as of June 8, the supply of five-year holders has decreased on a day-to-day basis 39% of the time following the election, three times more than the typical rate of 13%.

“This long-term holder movement may help explain some of the sideways and downward price action observed during the first quarter of 2025,” Wainwright observed.

“It also shows that ancient supply outpacing incoming supply on average does not necessarily lead to higher prices and can have an inverse effect in shorter timeframes as supply movements increase.”

Bitcoin has only gained around 12% so far this year, which is supposed to be the peak of the bull market cycle, if history repeats.

A Unique Attribute

The researcher concluded that it is possible that the ancient supply increases and long-term holding behavior “may become more common in the future as new digital asset-focused investment products emerge and institutional adoption increases.”

“This is one of the most unique attributes of Bitcoin that no other existing investment or commodity currently possesses—and one that could become increasingly important if demand rises as ancient supply grows.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode reported that profit-taking behavior among different cohorts had flipped.

Last week, we highlighted how $BTC wallets that held >12m were the primary profit-takers. But that trend has now flipped. Yesterday:

6–12m holders alone realized $904M – second-highest daily profit YTD pic.twitter.com/gBD8tLCjVG

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 17, 2025