Bitcoin (BTC) Quiet Before Storm? Hidden Metric Flashes Bullish Signal
While BTC trades sideways, a key technical indicator—ignored by most—just triggered its first buy signal in months. Forget the ’efficient market hypothesis’—smart money’s stacking before the herd arrives.
Subheader: The Whisper Before the Rally
No fireworks yet, but the groundwork’s being laid. Volume’s drying up, volatility’s compressed—classic pre-breakout behavior. And that ’early upside’ signal? Historically accurate 78% of the time within 14 days (not that past performance guarantees anything—your compliance department made us say that).
Wall Street’s still debating ’digital gold’ while this indicator screams accumulation. Maybe they’re too busy calculating their next custody fee.
Accumulation Signals
As of May 29, 2025, the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of the BCMI has rebounded sharply to around 0.6, which, according to CryptoQuant, suggests an early upside signal. In contrast, the 90-day SMA remains stable at approximately 0.45, reflecting a neutral zone and confirming that the market is not yet overheated.
The BCMI, which blends key metrics such as MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index, serves as a broader gauge of market mood. Thresholds highlight extremes, values below 0.15 point to macro bottoms, while those above 0.75 hint at potential tops.
With profit-taking slowing and on-chain indicators improving, the index hints at a possible early accumulation phase. While broader participation remains cautious, the data suggests sentiment may be quietly turning.
“The crowd is still waiting – but the signal is already flashing.”
Further validating this behavior, Santiment’s latest analysis revealed a significant trend among mid-sized bitcoin whales. The crypto analytics firm observed that wallets holding between 100-1,000 BTC have shown the strongest historical correlation to Bitcoin’s price movements over the past five years. In the last six weeks alone, this cohort has added 337 new wallets, collectively accumulating an additional 122,330 BTC.
This sharp uptick in accumulation suggests growing confidence among seasoned investors and may signal a bullish undercurrent forming beneath the surface of current market conditions.
“Pivot Zone” for Bitcoin
Bitcoin could be facing another prolonged consolidation phase if fresh buying pressure does not emerge this week, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. In a recent update, WOO noted that while the broader market shows signs of strength, with his Risk Signal trending downward, which means buy-side liquidity is dominating, the short-term momentum is faltering.
The strength of this bullish run from $75K to $112K is starting to break down, he warned. The next few days are crucial: a lack of follow-through from buyers may stall the rally and trap the market in sideways action. Woo raised concerns over latecomer speculators entering long positions while many holders sit on significant unrealized gains, as highlighted by the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).
If profit-taking intensifies without sufficient spot demand, the market could retreat or stall. Woo believes the outcome of this week’s spot market activity will likely shape Bitcoin’s direction for the next one to two months.
