Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Sustainable Momentum or Correction Ahead?

Bitcoin’s recent surge has traders divided—is this the start of a new paradigm or another overbought trap?

The Rally Breakdown

BTC smashed through resistance levels with institutional inflows hitting 18-month highs. But derivatives data shows leveraged longs at dangerous extremes—classic warning signs of a potential flushout.

Macro Meets Crypto

With the Fed’s balance sheet expanding again and Trump-era deregulation rumors swirling, liquidity conditions favor risk assets. Yet every ’this time it’s different’ rally eventually meets gravity (and margin calls).

Key Levels to Watch

Hold above $72K and bulls target all-time highs. Break below $68K? Prepare for liquidations that’ll make your exchange app crash faster than a DeFi protocol audit.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC remains above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are located in the $90,000 – $96,000 range, and have also crossed bullishly in recent weeks. The RSI sits around 63, showing that the rally isn’t yet overheated but is nearing the upper range.

A healthy consolidation around the $108,000 level could serve as a base for another leg up, provided bullish momentum holds and volume supports a breakout.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a rising channel structure, and despite a recent breakdown of the lower trendline, the price has convincingly defended the horizontal support level at $106,000. This area has now become an intraday support zone.

The RSI is around the neutral 50 level, suggesting balanced momentum after a brief correction. A clean break and close above $109,000 and a return inside the channel could trigger a push towards the $112,000–115,000 range, while any breakdown below $106,000 might open the door for a short-term pullback toward the $102,000–$100,000 region.

Sentiment Analysis

Exchange Reserve

On-chain data continues to support a bullish bias. Exchange reserves are at their lowest level in years, now sitting around 2.4 million BTC. This sustained and aggressive decline reinforces the idea that investors are moving BTC off exchanges, likely for long-term storage, reducing sell-side liquidity.

With supply tightening and price climbing, the conditions remain ripe for higher valuations, especially if macro conditions stay favorable and demand from institutional channels remains strong.