What Market Effects Will the $2.2 Billion Crypto Options Expiration Trigger?
As the crypto market approaches a significant $2.2 billion options expiry on 2025-04-18, traders and analysts are closely monitoring potential volatility and price movements. Large-scale expirations often lead to increased trading activity as market participants adjust or hedge their positions. Key factors to watch include open interest distribution across strike prices, implied volatility shifts, and the overall sentiment in derivatives markets. Institutional and retail traders alike should prepare for possible liquidity fluctuations, particularly in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, where the bulk of expiring contracts are concentrated. This event may also influence spot market dynamics, depending on whether traders roll over positions or allow them to settle.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
This week’s tranche of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.92, meaning that the short and long contract sellers are pretty closely matched. There is also a max pain point of $82,000, which is where most losses will be made on expiry.
Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $100,000 strike price, with around $1.4 billion, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment as derivatives speculators bet on higher prices.
However, there is a fair amount of OI at the $75,000 strike price as the bears are maintaining their short positions, according to Deribit.
Options Expiry Alert
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.25B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $1.98B notional | Put/Call: 0.92 | Max Pain: $82K$ETH: $271M notional | Put/Call: 0.88 | Max Pain: $1,600
With vol crushed and skew flat, is the market setting… pic.twitter.com/df4ha3BPdn
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) April 17, 2025
Crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live said the group “appears predominantly bullish” in the NEAR term, with expectations of BTC moving up to the $88,000 to $90,000 range within the next week despite slower market activity.
“Some traders are reinforcing put positions while others note the disconnect between spot buying and futures shorting activity, suggesting market participants remain cautious about potential volatility.”
It observed that futures markets are “showing heavy shorting activity” while spot keeps buying, which is “creating a potential short squeeze setup.”
In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, there are around 177,000 Ethereum contracts that are also expiring today, with a notional value of $271 million, a max pain point of $1,600, and a put/call ratio of 0.88. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.2 billion.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets have remained relatively stable over the past 24 hours, with total capitalization at $2.72 trillion.
Bitcoin dipped below $84,000 but rapidly recovered to reclaim $85,000, where it was trading at the time of writing during the Friday morning Asian session.
Ethereum failed to make any progress above $1,600 and has fallen back below this resistance level again, trading at $1,583 at the time of writing.
Greeks said that there were opinions that BTC price is “holding way too well” despite low volume, “suggesting potential for upward movement.” However, analysts agree that consolidation is likely to occur first.
