Kenya Accelerates Final Push to Seal US Trade Deal by Year-End

Nairobi's trade negotiators shift into overdrive—racing against the calendar to lock down a landmark US-Kenya agreement before December 31st.

Behind the Scenes: The Digital Currency Angle

Insiders whisper that blockchain-based settlement mechanisms are on the table—potentially bypassing traditional banking delays. No more waiting three days for wire transfers to clear when smart contracts execute in seconds.

Why It Matters for Crypto

Trade deals like this could accelerate Bitcoin adoption across emerging markets. Kenya's mobile-money-savvy population might just prefer crypto over slow, expensive remittance corridors—another nail in the coffin for legacy finance's fee-hungry middlemen.

Watch for African nations leveraging tech to rewrite trade rules—while Wall Street still charges 2% for currency conversion. Some things never change.

United States and Kenya explore new trade framework

Under President Joe Biden, the two sides launched efforts on an investment and trade partnership designed to ease non-tariff barriers, but that effort was not completed before Donald TRUMP returned to office again in January.

Kenya is one of Washington’s closest partners in the region and, in 2024, received the designation of a major ally outside NATO. Even so, Nairobi has fielded recent criticism from some United States officials over its deeper relations with China. President Ruto has defended engagement with Beijing, saying Kenya needs to sell more into the Chinese market to narrow a trade gap that favors China.

Kinyanjui would not discuss the possible terms of a new pact but said it is “largely the wish” to mirror AGOA, which allows a wide range of products from 32 qualifying African nations to enter the US duty-free. 

US AGOA supports jobs in Kenya

“If there’s no clear transition, there would be disruption,” Lee Kinyanjui said, adding that the government hopes for an extension to protect jobs in textiles and apparel from “a sudden end to AGOA”.

According to Kinyanjui, AGOA supports 300,000 jobs, both direct and indirect, in Kenya’s textile industry. Factories produce uniforms, jeans, and other clothing for US retailers such as Walmart and Target. This work depends on steady access to the American market. 

Officials say Kenya’s current exposure at 10% is still lower than levies on competitors like South Africa or Vietnam, which could provide some buffer even if AGOA lapses. 

“We believe we still can be competitive,” Kinyanjui said. “You may see those big companies actually wanting to come to Kenya.”

For now, Nairobi is pursuing two tracks by pressing for a bilateral deal with Washington by year’s end while hoping for a bridge that would prevent a cliff-edge end to AGOA. With the duty-free programme set to expire at the end of September, the 10% tariff already in place since April, and no fresh negotiating dates announced, Kinyanjui’s timeline is the clearest marker yet for how fast both sides may need to move.

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