美国消费者信贷激增160亿美元，总额突破5.06万亿美元大关

信贷狂潮席卷全美——消费者正以每月160亿美元的速度疯狂加杠杆。

债务新高背后的真相

信用卡账单堆成山，个人贷款突破天花板。5.06万亿美元的总债务规模让经济学家们直挠头——这到底是经济活力的体现，还是泡沫破裂的前兆？

加密视角：传统信贷膨胀助推数字资产需求

当法币系统持续注水，聪明钱早已开始寻找避风港。比特币和以太坊不仅是对冲通胀的工具，更是对陈旧金融体系的彻底颠覆。传统信贷每增长1美元，就有更多理由拥抱去中心化金融。

毕竟，当每个人都在借钱消费时，持有真正稀缺的资产显得格外明智——银行可以印钞，但没人能打印出更多的比特币。

Americans are missing minimum payments and juggling debt in Trump’s second term

The stress from this rising debt is hitting people across income brackets. In the second quarter, credit card debt stood at $1.21 trillion, unchanged from last year’s record, but now 2.3% higher than Q1.

A set of surveys by the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC) showed that debt problems aren’t just tied to income anymore. Mike Croxson, CEO of the NFCC, said:

“It really doesn’t matter on the income level. It’s really about the debt level. Because when you reach the tipping point that the interest expense exceeds what you can afford to pay, that’s what gets the consumer into trouble.”

The survey of 2,010 adults in April was updated in August with a new batch of 2,089 responses. Between those two surveys, some troubling trends popped up. The share of Americans who paid less than their minimum credit card payment in the last six months jumped from 8% in April to 13% in August.

More borrowers are also shuffling debt, transferring balances from card to card or turning them into personal loans. The share of people who consolidated their card debt into personal loans doubled, rising from 4% to 8% between the two surveys.

In the August results, 30% of high-income earners said they were more worried about unexpected costs, while 20% were now more anxious about staying current on their debt.

Around 15% of people buying or leasing a new vehicle have a payment of more than $1,000 a month, according to a new Experian report. The average monthly payment for a new auto loan is $749.

Late payments spike as Fed prepares for rate cuts

Behind all the worries are real delinquencies. The CreditGauge report from July, published by VantageScore, showed that the number of borrowers over 90 days late has gone up across all credit score tiers, including those with the best credit.

Even with rising defaults, traders are pricing in up to three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed by the end of 2025. Shorter-maturity U.S. Treasuries have surged, beating all other major bond markets this year. Bloomberg indexes show U.S. government debt returned 5.8%, topping the list among the 15 biggest debt markets globally.

The rally has pushed the extra yield on Treasuries versus global bonds to a three-year low. Weakness in the dollar helped boost the value of foreign assets, but even when removing currency effects, Treasuries still outperformed.

Outside the U.S., other countries are facing their own mess. France is dealing with rising deficits, Japan is stuck in hawkish mode, and China’s stock market keeps climbing. Meanwhile, U.S. two-year yields dropped a basis point to 3.52%, and 10-year yields held steady at 4.04%.

Earlier this year, analysts were sounding alarms over U.S. deficits above 6% of GDP, along with Donald Trump’s tariffs and his shots at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which raised concerns about central bank independence. Now those fears have taken a back seat.

Markets briefly expected a 50 bps cut after weak payroll data dropped earlier this month. Traders are watching closely as the Fed meets on Wednesday, with most expecting the first cut to come then.

Year to date, 10-year Treasury yields in the U.S. have dropped about 50 basis points. In contrast, China’s equivalent yield has risen 20, France’s is up nearly 30, and Japan’s has jumped by close to 50 basis points.

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