Trump’s Major Russian Oil Sanctions Hinge on EU Taking First Action

Trump administration readies hammer blow against Russian energy exports—but only if Europe blinks first.

The geopolitical chess match just escalated. Washington's preparing sweeping sanctions targeting Moscow's oil revenue streams. But there's a catch: Trump wants Brussels to make the opening move.

Energy markets brace for supply shock. Russian crude accounts for nearly 12% of global exports. Cutting that flow could send prices soaring—again. Remember what happened last time politicians messed with energy markets? Traders made fortunes while consumers paid the bill.

Watch the EU's next move. If they sanction first, Trump follows with even tougher measures. If they hesitate, the whole plan stalls. Either way, someone's portfolio is about to get a volatility injection.

Trump pitches 100% tariffs while Hungary and India brace

The United States has already pitched its plan to the Group of Seven. It includes tariffs of up to 100% on China and India, both of which continue buying oil from Russia. Trump’s team is pressing G7 leaders to act in “the coming weeks,” aiming to hammer the networks enabling Russia’s crude trade.

For Brussels, this puts them in a tight spot: while they’ve criticized Moscow, they still rely heavily on Chinese markets and are trying to wrap up a trade deal with India.

Hungary is especially exposed. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has spent the last three years doubling down on Russian energy, could lose a lot if the exemptions disappear. The country has also gone DEEP into Chinese manufacturing, especially in the electric vehicle and battery sectors.

“The US can really give a checkmate to Orban on Russian energy, if it wants to,” said Andras Deak, a researcher at the National Public Service University in Budapest. Andras warned that companies like Mol Nyrt., which supplies Slovakia’s only refinery, could be crippled by direct energy sanctions.

Even so, Hungary is starting to look around. Viktor just signed a 10-year deal with Shell Plc for 2 billion cubic meters of gas, symbolic, considering the country needs several times that every year. He also traveled to the UAE and Qatar on Friday to talk about alternative fuel supplies.

Hungary’s past diversification efforts, including projects with Azerbaijan and a pipeline through Croatia, might help if Russian imports get cut off completely.

On the Indian coast, another angle to the story played out as the Spartan, a Suezmax tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Russian Urals crude, approached Mundra port, operated by Adani Group.

The vessel had already been sanctioned by both the EU and UK last year for facilitating Russian oil shipments. It’s now expected to be one of the last sanctioned ships to unload at Adani’s terminal before a new ban kicks in.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., the operator of Mundra, issued an internal advisory on September 11 stating that from now on, no vessel sanctioned by the US, EU, or UK will be allowed to dock.

An Adani spokesperson confirmed Monday that the rule is immediate but doesn’t affect ships that were already heading toward the port when the rule was announced. The Spartan appears to fall into that category.

Over the first eight months of this year, Mundra took in about 180,000 barrels per day of Russian oil, compared to the 1.6 million barrels daily flowing into India overall from Russia. That oil usually goes to refineries run by Indian Oil Corp. and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd.

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