US New Home Sizes Hit 20-Year Low While Square Foot Prices Soar
American Dream Shrinks as Builders Chase Affordability
The Math of Modern Homebuilding
Builders slash square footage—down to levels not seen in two decades—while charging more per foot than ever. Construction costs, land prices, and rising interest rates force their hand. Buyers get less house but pay more for the privilege.
Welcome to the new economics of homeownership: smaller spaces, tighter budgets, and the relentless pursuit of entry-level pricing. Even the white picket fence feels inflationary these days.
Guess it’s easier to shrink the house than to raise your salary.
Mortgage rate spike slashes buying power
The housing market is now harder than ever for average Americans. As of August, only 28% of homes on the market are affordable for median-income households, down from 30% earlier in the year, according to Realtor.com.
That’s a drop of nearly $30,000 in affordability since 2019, despite the fact that median incomes have grown by 15.7% over the same period.
Blame it on borrowing. Back in January 2021, a 30-year fixed mortgage came with a rate of 2.65%. Today, that rate has nearly tripled to 6.75%. That one change adds $600 per month to a standard $320,000 loan, or $7,200 more a year. And it doesn’t stop there.
“Even as incomes grow, higher interest rates have eroded the real-world purchasing power of the typical American household,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
“This dynamic is forcing many buyers to adjust their expectations, whether that means looking for smaller homes, moving farther out, or delaying the dream of homeownership altogether.”
Larger down payments needed as prices rise
In 2019, a $320,000 loan could buy the median-priced home in full. Today, that same amount falls short by nearly 28%. The average listing price has now hit $439,450, meaning buyers WOULD need an upfront down payment of over $120,000 just to close.
The combination of high rates and high prices has pushed homebuying activity down to its lowest level since the mid-1990s, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. More Americans are giving up on buying altogether, or are settling for homes that don’t match their needs.
Major cities have been hit hard. Milwaukee, Houston, Baltimore, New York, and Kansas City have all seen sharp drops in affordability. In those metros, the average household can now afford 9% to 10.5% less than they could just a few years ago.
This is no longer a temporary trend. The US housing market is in a structural crisis. Prices are up. Space is down. Mortgage payments are heavier. And buyers are being pushed to the edge.
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