Markets on Edge: China Sales Shockwaves & US Deal Drama Ahead of Nvidia’s Earnings Bombshell

Tech investors white-knuckle through dual storm fronts—China's selloff tremors and US regulatory chess moves—as Nvidia's earnings loom.

Tension Builds Toward Earnings Catalyst

Traders brace for ripple effects across semiconductor and crypto mining stocks. AI token valuations hang in the balance ahead of what analysts call a 'make-or-break' guidance update.

Global Macro Pressures Mount

Beijing's latest offloading spree rattles Asian markets while Stateside dealmakers scramble behind closed doors. The timing couldn't be worse—or more perfectly orchestrated for maximum volatility.

Because nothing says 'healthy markets' like institutional players positioning for retail bloodbaths right before major announcements.

China brought 13% of Nvidia’s revenue last year

For Q2 2025, many analysts did not include H20 sales revenue in China because US approval arrived quite late, and China’s pushback has made full-year forecasts harder to pin down. 

NVDA shares rose by over a third in 2025. That is a small gain compared with the previous two years, but it still outpaces the over 15% advance in the chip index and the S&P 500 Index’s NEAR 10% rise this year.

In Q3, Wall Street expects that Nvidia will guide a $52.96 billion revenue, 51% higher from a year earlier. Analysts at Piper Sandler have estimated that up to $6 billion of the revenue would be brought in from China, with further growth at a 12% to 15% rate. 

Margins, however, may be lower. Chips bound for China may carry a 5-15 percentage-point reduction to total margins under the federal arrangement, and Bernstein estimates that would shave about one point from Nvidia’s overall margins. 

It is also expected that the company’s adjusted total margin may drop by 4 percentage points and reach 72.1%.

Options traders are preparing for a large reaction

Pricing implies about a $260 billion swing in Nvidia’s market value after the second-quarter report, with options pointing to a roughly 6% MOVE in either direction. It is lower than 7% long-term average move, suggesting investors may feel they have a better handle on likely outcomes as the company matures. 

Over the last 12 quarters, Nvidia’s overall earnings averaged 7.7%, whereas on average, the actual move remained close to 7.6%. After a big rally that lifted markets in 2025, the tech sector has pulled back this month as enthusiasm cooled. 

Traders now look at Nvidia’s update to judge whether its roughly $4 trillion valuation can be justified, and to see how the recent deal with the United States will affect the outlook.

NVDA shares are up approximately 34% in 2025 and edged up 1.02% to reach $179.81 on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 reduced by 0.43% and reached 6,439.32 on the same day, edging up 9.5%.

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