Thailand’s Exports Surge 11% in July - Trade Winds Favor Asian Tiger Economy

Thailand's export engine roars back to life with double-digit growth—defying global economic headwinds and trade tensions.

Export Boom Defies Expectations

July's 11% surge marks Thailand's strongest performance in years, outpacing analyst predictions and regional competitors. The numbers don't lie—while traditional markets wobble, Thai goods are finding hungry buyers worldwide.

Manufacturing Momentum Builds

From electronics to agricultural products, Thailand's diverse export portfolio shows strength across sectors. The 11% jump signals robust global demand and efficient supply chain management—something Western economies struggle to match.

Asian Trade Dominance Continues

While Europe debates stimulus packages and the Fed plays interest rate games, Thailand simply ships goods. The 11% growth figure speaks volumes about shifting global trade patterns—and where real economic activity actually happens.

Another reminder that while Wall Street analysts overcomplicate everything with models and projections, sometimes economic success boils down to making things people want to buy—and shipping them efficiently. Maybe they should try that instead of manipulating currency markets.

U.S. tariffs pull demand forward

Importers brought in goods earlier to avoid higher costs once the United States tariffs began, said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office. “Achieving double-digit export growth for the year is unlikely,” he told a news briefing.

By destination, sales to the U.S, Thailand’s biggest market, ROSE 31.4 percent in July versus a year ago. Exports to China increased 23.1 percent, ministry figures showed.

Washington set a 19 percent tariff, a rate lower than the 36 percent previously announced and broadly matching levies on other regional exporters. There is still uncertainty over how the United States will treat goods transshipped through Thailand from 3rd countries, officials said.

The U.S was Thailand’s top buyer last year, taking 18.3 percent of total shipments worth $55 billion. Imports increased 5.1 percent in July compared with a year earlier, above a projected increase of 4.90 percent.

The trade balance swung to a surplus of  $0.32 billion in July, compared with an expected deficit of $0.5 billion.

Thailand’s economy slowed in the second quarter on weak demand

Thailand’s economy lost momentum in the April-June quarter as soft household spending offset firm export gains. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy was expected to grow 2.5% year on year in Q2, according to an August 12-15 poll of 21 economists.

Individual forecasts ran from 1.6% to 2.9%. The economy expanded 3.1% in the first three months of 2025, and the government will publish the second-quarter release on August 18.

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted basis, gross domestic product was seen up 0.3%, a smaller sample of economists indicated, easing from 0.7% in Q1.

Exports posted double-digit increases in every month of the first half except April, as many firms hurried shipments ahead of higher U.S. tariffs. The United States was Thailand’s biggest export market last year, taking 18.3% of total shipments worth $55 billion.

To support domestic demand, the central bank on Wednesday lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, a three-year low. That marked the fourth cut in 10 months overall.

“We expect GDP growth to slow to 1.7% in the second half of 2025. Headwinds are piling up. Exports will slow as frontloading fades,” said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank. A separate Reuters survey in July projected growth of 1.3% in Q3 and 0.9% in Q4.

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