Markets on Edge: July Minutes & Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Force Fed’s Hand on Rate Cuts

All eyes turn to the Fed as pressure builds for a dovish pivot.

Will Powell blink?
Markets hang on every word from Jackson Hole—while Wall Street bets on cuts the Fed insists aren’t coming. Classic.

The clock’s ticking.
With July’s meeting minutes dropping this week, traders are hunting for cracks in the Fed’s hawkish armor. Spoiler: they’ll overinterpret a single comma as a policy shift.

Meanwhile in reality…
Inflation’s still sticky, wages won’t quit, and Jerome’s got that ‘parent explaining why the dog died’ energy every time he mentions soft landings.

Place your bets—will this be the week the Fed finally admits what futures markets have priced in since 2023? Or just another masterclass in ‘forward guidance’ that guides precisely nothing?

Can Powell calm the storm?

On Monday, Zelensky will meet Trump, who is still pushing for a rapid peace deal. Ukrainian President seems to be walking a tightrope while defending the nation’s survival. He will be trying to avoid another Oval Office showdown with Trump. 

But geopolitics isn’t the only thing markets are watching. On Wednesday, the Fed will release minutes from its July meeting. This will provide a deeper look at how divided officials are over the path of interest rates. Investors are betting on cuts next month, but the central bank remains caught between tariff-driven inflation and weakening labor data.

Thursday will come with the August flash PMI figures. This is expected to be the first real test of how Trump’s fresh tariffs are filtering into the US economy. With global PMI data due as well from Europe, Japan, and Canada, traders will be able to check whether the slowdown is spreading. 

Friday is all set for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. The stakes are even higher as Trump wants him out, and markets want a clear roadmap for easing. Powell is looking at an economy caught in the crossfire of trade wars and political pressure. However, he could use the speech to calm nerves and confirm cuts, or he could keep markets guessing. Either way, his words will set the tone for weeks to come.

Institutions are buying the dip

The digital assets market saw some mixed signals over the week as institutions were scooping, but retail investors looked away from it. Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs recorded 2 weeks of back-to-back inflow in August. The first week saw $246.75 million coming into the funds. The second week was even higher as it recorded $547 million of inflow.

Bitcoin price remained marginally stable over the last 7 and 30 days. BTC is trading at an average price of $118,408 at the press time, up by 27% on YTD.

Ethereum turns out to be outperforming Bitcoin in ETF inflows and in the market as well. The first week of August posted $326.83 million of inflow for Ether ETFs. The second week went on to hit a new record of inflow with $2.85 billion. ethereum price surged by more than 7% over the last 7 days and 25% over the past 30 days. ETH is trading at an average price of $4,537 at the press time.

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