India Feels the Heat: Trump Tightens Screws on Russian Oil Imports While China Skates Free

Geopolitical tensions flare as India bears the brunt of U.S. pressure over Russian crude—meanwhile, Beijing dances through loopholes unscathed.

The Squeeze Play

Washington’s sanctions hammer keeps swinging, but the blows aren’t landing evenly. Delhi’s energy imports from Moscow now come with a political tax—while China’s shadow supply chains hum along untouched. Classic great-power chess: one player gets the lecture, the other gets the leverage.

Crude Realities

No hard numbers? No problem. The market’s reading between the lines: India’s refiners are recalculating margins under Washington’s glare, while Chinese teapots keep blending sanctioned barrels like it’s 2022. Some ‘rules-based order’—more like ‘rules for thee, not for me.’

Finance Jab

And let’s be real—this whole dance is just fossilized geopolitics repackaged as moral posturing. When the petrodollar’s at stake, suddenly everyone’s a sudden energy Puritan… until the right palms get greased.

India punished while China stays untouchable

The sharp move against India highlights the uneven pressure being applied by the WHITE House. Despite India and China being the two largest buyers of Russian oil, only one of them is being penalized.

The administration has made repeated threats to hit nations helping fund Moscow’s war through energy purchases, but so far, only India has felt the weight.

Xi Jinping, China’s president, is currently negotiating a trade deal with Trump that could lower tensions between the two economic giants. That deal could reduce tariffs and calm years of aggressive trade fighting. But Trump’s choice to delay action against China, even while warning of future moves, shows he’s not ready to risk blowing up those talks, at least not yet.

Behind the scenes, Beijing’s economy is already showing signs of stress. If Trump follows through on his repeated threats of Russia-related sanctions and trade penalties, Xi would have a bigger mess to clean up. But for now, China’s energy deals with Russia are untouched, and the tariffs are on hold.

Russia’s oil earnings plunge as exports shrink

While Trump hesitates, Russia’s export numbers are sinking. According to the Bank of Russia, overseas shipments dropped 8% in June compared to the year before. That followed a nearly 10% dip in May. For the second quarter, exports dropped 5.9% year-over-year, matching the decline seen in the first quarter of the year.

The problem isn’t just the volume, it’s also the price. Russian oil, which had averaged over $70 per barrel earlier in the year, fell to an average of just $56 per barrel in Q2. The central bank now predicts it’ll go even lower, estimating a $55 per barrel average for the rest of 2025. That’s down from the earlier forecast of $60.

More supply from OPEC+, and less demand globally, are making things worse. As the market gets flooded, prices are expected to drop again. Meanwhile, the European Union’s sanctions, which included lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel, have had little effect.

Russian crude is still moving through the system, just sold at cheaper prices. Even Trump’s threats of more tariffs and secondary sanctions haven’t caused major disruptions to the FLOW of Russian oil.

The price gap between Russian benchmark crude and the global rate is now the tightest it’s been since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

In the first half of 2025, Russia’s exports totaled $196.1 billion, down 5.9% from a year earlier. Imports remained steady at $138.7 billion.

But the country’s current account surplus, the measure of what Russia earns from abroad minus what it spends, has dropped. It’s now at $25 billion, way down from $42.1 billion in the same period last year. That decline is tied to weaker trade results and growing deficits in services.

Elsewhere, the markets responded. Brent crude dropped 1.5%, settling at $66.85 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell 1.8% to $62.80. Gold moved only slightly, with spot gold inching up 0.09% to $3,338.65 an ounce and U.S. gold futures ending flat at $3,382.60.

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