S&P 500 Smashes Records at 6,445.76 as Nasdaq Soars to 21,681.90—Bull Market Rages On

Wall Street's relentless rally just hit another milestone—and the skeptics are running out of excuses.

The S&P 500 Breaks the Unbreakable

6,445.76. That’s not a typo. The benchmark index just punched through another psychological barrier, leaving analysts scrambling to update their 'overvalued' PowerPoint slides from 2023.

Nasdaq’s Gravity-Defying Act

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit 21,681.90—because apparently 'valuation concerns' are just something old-money fund managers yell at clouds. Growth stocks? Still growing. Short sellers? Still suffering.

The Punchline

Another day, another ATH. The market’s climbing a wall of worry so high even Bitcoin maximalists are taking notes. And if history’s any guide, the only thing more predictable than these gains is some hedge fund manager calling it 'unsustainable' right before the next leg up.

Rate expectations and sector moves

Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, said the setup right now has rates moving lower and earnings moving higher, creating what he called “a pretty good environment for the broad stock market.”

Smaller companies saw the biggest boost, with the Russell 2000 rising nearly three times as much as the S&P 500. In the crypto space, Circle Internet Group gained 3% after reporting that its second-quarter revenue jumped 53% from a year ago.

The inflation data wasn’t the only factor moving markets. On Monday, President Donald TRUMP said he would extend a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for Chinese goods. That decision came as traders waited for Thursday’s producer price index report, which will give a broader picture of wholesale inflation.

Both sets of figures arrive ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering later this month, followed by the September policy meeting where a rate decision will be made.

Wolfe Research noted that while summer market swings have been typical, the firm expects investor caution to fade by fall.

In a Sunday note, it said that although it still officially expects the Fed to hold rates in September, last week’s payrolls report gives the central bank “reason to deliver the cuts they still want to do.” The firm added that by fall, the economy could “look better than feared” as growth starts to turn higher.

Analysts weigh in on market rally sustainability

BCA Research suggested the rally could continue even if the economy slows. In a Monday note, the firm said it is leaning toward the conclusion that slower growth won’t impact markets over the next six to twelve months, as long as it happens gradually. BCA also said that signs of weaker economic activity could even be “celebrated as a catalyst” for more Fed rate cuts.

The firm warned, however, that strong bullish momentum is making it difficult for those positioned defensively. It also said the first wave of key economic data releases had reinforced its view that the economy isn’t as strong as the market believes. BCA added that the labor market and consumer spending are “walking a tightrope above a stall-speed quagmire,” signaling that any misstep could quickly expose underlying weakness.

From here, Wall Street’s focus will stay locked on inflation readings, upcoming Fed meetings, and the ongoing tariff situation with China as traders position themselves for what could be a volatile end to the summer.

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