India Defies Trump’s Threats, Doubles Down on Russian Oil Imports

New Delhi plays energy hardball—cheap crude trumps geopolitical posturing.

The Realpolitik Fuel Game

While Washington fumes, India’s refiners keep snapping up discounted Russian barrels. No sanctions? No problem. The subcontinent’s energy calculus is cold, hard, and brutally efficient.

Petrodollar Paradox

Global finance clutches pearls as India bypasses Western payment systems. Rupee-ruble mechanisms grease the wheels—because nothing accelerates ‘alternative financial infrastructure’ like saving 30% on energy imports.

Cynical Finance Bonus

Wall Street still thinks SWIFT is irreversible. Meanwhile, Delhi just monetized Trump’s bluster into a sovereign trade arbitrage. Who needs hedge funds when you’ve got state-sponsored commodity plays?

India rejects American pressure, continues with Russian oil flow

Trump had made the threat just days before. As part of his latest round of economic actions, he said India WOULD face consequences if it continued importing Russian crude. On Friday, he told reporters:

“I understand that India is no longer going to be buying oil from Russia. That’s what I heard. I don’t know if that’s right or not. That is a good step. We will see what happens.”

But Indian officials immediately pushed back, denying any policy change and clarifying that no orders had been passed down.

India’s rising frustration with the United States isn’t new. Officials in New Delhi are tired of unpredictable American decisions disrupting their energy planning. India imports nearly 90% of its oil. It relies on over 40 countries for supplies, but recent history has shown the U.S. doesn’t hesitate to target India’s top partners.

That’s already happened with Iran and Venezuela. In both cases, India was forced to cut ties and suffered financially when the U.S. later flipped its position.

Former Indian Deputy National Security Adviser Pankaj Saran, who also served as ambassador to Moscow, said that cutting Russian oil would help no one except China. “What we also have to keep in mind is that even if India may cut to zero, China is not going to,” Saran said. “You will have a kind of bizarre situation where Russia will sell to China at cheap prices, and so you would have China being the ultimate beneficiary.”

India’s energy strategy is built around long-term Russian supply

India’s oil relationship with Russia has grown dramatically since the Ukraine war began. Before the invasion, Russian crude made up less than 1% of India’s imports. Today, it accounts for more than a third. India is now the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China, bringing in about 2 million barrels per day.

During the first year of the Ukraine war, the U.S. and European nations tried to pressure India into cutting Russian trade. But that effort lost momentum by year two. By then, India had made it clear that its purchases were within the bounds of the G7 and EU price cap policy. Senior U.S. Treasury officials who visited New Delhi early last year admitted India’s approach was working.

India now sees itself as playing a role in keeping global oil prices under control. But officials remain wary of the U.S. changing positions again. One senior Indian official allegedly pointed out that Russia’s supply deals involve long-term contracts and shipping routes that can’t be undone overnight. New Delhi is not interested in destabilizing its economy to follow a political strategy that may change with a press conference.

Trump did not say what exact penalty India would face, leaving the threat open-ended. Indian analysts believe his warning may have more to do with his anger over Russia’s stalled progress in Ukraine than with India itself. Others suggest it could be part of ongoing trade negotiations between Trump and New Delhi.

But India’s message is simple: it’s not changing course just because someone in Washington thinks it should.

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