BREAKING: Trump Seals Major US-Indonesia Deal—Here’s What It Means for Global Markets

Washington shakes hands with Jakarta in a surprise move that’ll send geopolitical ripples—and maybe a few hedge fund managers scrambling.

The Deal Nobody Saw Coming

Just when markets thought they’d priced in all possible volatility, the Trump administration drops a bilateral bombshell. No details yet, but the smart money’s already betting on commodities—and scrambling to front-run the inevitable supply chain plays.

Why Crypto Traders Should Care

Emerging market deals like this historically juice risk appetite. Watch for capital flows into high-beta assets—including Bitcoin and altcoins—as institutional desks recalibrate their EM exposure. (And yes, some VC will probably tokenize Indonesian palm oil within 48 hours.)

The Cynical Take

Another ‘historic agreement’ that’ll get a Bloomberg ticker before most Indonesians see any benefits. But hey—at least it’s not another stablecoin hearing.

Indonesia’s Hartarto was in talks with officials Lutnick and Bessent

Only last week, President TRUMP warned that he would slap a 32% tariff on Indonesian exports from August 1.  Indonesia responded to the threat by sending its lead trade envoy to engage with Trump’s Cabinet to reach an agreement. 

The country’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss trade deals.

Earlier this month, President Trump reached a deal with the Vietnamese government. The US now imposes only 20% on goods from Vietnam entering the US and a 40% levy for transshipping. The transshipping tariffs mean that any country that uses Vietnam to export its products to the US will face a 40% tariff. Conversely, Vietnam had to open its markets completely to the US, charging 0% tariff.

Additionally, the US and China agreed on a tariff truce. The two economies, however, set a deadline for their truce to August 12. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at the possibility of extending the tariff truce with China. He pointed out that their talks with China are in a “very good place.” 

The Vietnamese government was reportedly surprised by Trump’s deal announcement

Like the Indonesia deal, Trump was also the first to announce their deal with Vietnam. However, according to sources, the Vietnamese government was surprised by Trump’s announcement of the deal and is still looking into how it can reduce the 20% rate. They claimed Vietnam’s party chief, To Lam, after his last call with Trump, instructed his team to continue efforts to lower the tariff rate. 

Reportedly, Vietnam believed it had secured a better tariff rate than the 20% Trump announced. The Vietnamese government was pushing for tariffs between 10% to 15%. According to Bloomberg, the US-Vietnam deal was hardly mentioned in local news. Moreover, shortly after Trump’s Truth Social Post on the agreement, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that negotiators were still finalizing the agreement details.

So far, Vietnam’s leadership has been noticeably quiet on the specifics of the issue. Rather than addressing it directly, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has only spoken about Vietnam’s broader goals of diversifying exports and supply chains to adjust to the tariff changes.

Last Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that he understood Vietnam’s position, claiming the Asia nation wanted to have a levy rate “that’s at least as good as, if not better than, other countries that don’t have a trade agreement” with the United States. 

Throughout the negotiations, Vietnam tried to maintain its relations with China. Washington had consistently asked Vietnam to block Chinese goods from being rerouted and repackaged through the country to avoid higher tariffs. With the 40% tariff in place, Beijing has stated it will review the agreement to determine whether its interests have been affected.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged for the first time that the trade deal he’s negotiating with the US President is almost certain to include tariffs. Speaking in French on Tuesday morning before a Cabinet meeting, he noted the lack of evidence that the US is offering tariff-free agreements.

Before Carney’s remarks, Canadian officials had remained hopeful for a nearly tariff-free relationship as part of the proposed trade and security deal.

According to Kirsten Hillman, the country’s ambassador to Washington and chief negotiator, Canada’s objectives remain straightforward. In an interview with CTV News last month, she emphasized that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement secured a 99 percent tariff-free trading relationship with the US, which Canada views as a fair and balanced deal.

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