China’s June Exports Surge 5.8% – Defying Expectations in Global Trade Slump
China’s export engine just flexed again—smashing forecasts with a 5.8% June surge while the rest of the world counts recession risks.
Trade winds shift (bullish edition)
No one told Beijing about the 'global slowdown.' Factories kept humming, cargo ships kept loading—while Western central bankers wring hands over 'soft landings.'
The cynical hedge fund take
Another month, another beat. Either China’s playing 4D chess with export data—or someone’s inventory glut just became your problem. Happy container-ship spotting.
China boosts exports to Europe and Southeast Asia
While exports to the U.S. dropped again in June, down 16.1%, the third straight monthly fall—the decline wasn’t as bad as May’s 34% plunge. That’s likely because of the temporary 90-day tariff truce agreed on May 12. Imports from the U.S. also fell 15.5%, down from an 18% drop the previous month. The freeze may have bought time, but it hasn’t revived trade between the world’s two largest economies.
Instead, China found demand elsewhere. Exports to Southeast Asia jumped 16.8%, and shipments to the European Union rose 7.6%. Imports from both regions barely moved, climbing only 0.08% and 0.41%. But that didn’t slow Beijing’s outbound momentum. Over the first half of 2025, China’s exports were up 5.9%, while imports fell 3.9%, bringing the trade surplus to $585.96 billion, nearly 35% higher than last year.
Even so, economists warn that the gains could fade. There’s still major uncertainty about how Trump’s trade war will evolve. While he’s currently focused on penalties and accusations, China is bracing for another escalation.
Rare earth exports rise as Trump pushes new tariffs
The rare earth front tells its own story. After meetings in London last month, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on a loose framework to MOVE forward. That deal followed earlier talks in Switzerland, where China pledged to resume rare earth shipments and the U.S. offered to ease controls on ethane, chip-design software, and jet engine parts.
In June, rare earth exports rose 60.3% from a year ago, climbing to 7,742 tonnes, a 32% increase over May. Imports of the same minerals fell 13.7%, as China focused on export deals ahead of the August 12 deadline to finalize terms with Washington.
Steel also continued its rise. Despite trade blocks from the U.S., the EU, India, and Vietnam, steel exports grew over 10% in June to hit 9.7 million tons. In Q2, the total reached 30.7 million tons, a record, according to Wind Information. The pressure isn’t stopping China’s factories, at least not yet.
Technology and machinery followed the same trend. Exports of integrated circuits rose 25.5%, cars increased 27.4%, and ships were up 11.9%, measured by volume. On the import side, China brought in 10.4% more soybean products and 7.4% more crude oil in June.
Coal went the opposite direction. Imports dropped to their lowest since February 2023, dragged down by weak local demand and higher domestic mining. First-half coal deliveries were 11% below 2024 levels. With real estate and heavy industry still slumping, energy demand is being pushed by summer heat rather than construction.
Beijing is moving to prevent a coal glut. Domestic production is expected to grow 5% this year, hitting a record for the seventh year in a row, enough to keep prices stable even as consumption cools.
Meanwhile, Trump is not letting go. In early July, the president announced plans to hit transshipments from third countries—especially Vietnam—with a 40% tariff. He accused Chinese manufacturers of using Vietnam as a backdoor into the U.S. customs system.
Trump also issued a fresh threat: a 10% tariff on imports from countries aligning with BRICS’ “anti-American” policies. That warning could drag more governments into the trade conflict and complicate Beijing’s diplomatic options just as it tries to secure more partners.
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