Trump Draws Line in the Sand: August 1 Tariff Deadline Set in Stone

Mark your calendars—the countdown to trade turbulence begins now.

Trump's tariff hammer drops August 1, leaving supply chains scrambling and CFOs reaching for the antacids. No wiggle room, no extensions—just hard deadlines and harder negotiations.

Wall Street's already pricing in the chaos. Because nothing fuels market volatility like arbitrary deadlines and political theater.

White House tries to downplay inflation fears

Stephen Miran, who chairs Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, appeared Tuesday on CNBC’s Squawk Box to respond to concerns that the upcoming tariffs could drive up prices. He compared the odds of a price spike to the chances of a space rock hitting the planet. “Rare events happen. We get pandemics or, or meteors or whatever,” Stephen said. “There’s just no evidence thus far of it happening.”

When anchor Melissa Lee challenged the comparison and pointed out that he was calling tariff-related inflation a freak event, Stephen replied: “I don’t mean to be dismissive. All I mean to say is that prediction is difficult, and we should always speak in terms of odds and possibilities.” He added, “I don’t have a crystal ball telling me the future, and neither does anyone else.”

Stephen used the interview to plug a fresh internal report from the council, claiming the tariffs haven’t yet caused the inflation spike that many economists warned about. The data covers the months between December 2024 and May 2025 and shows that prices for imported goods actually dropped during that time. He pointed out that both CPI and PCE, the two main US inflation indexes, either held steady or moved only slightly.

Economists say prices could still rise soon

Despite what Stephen said, analysts across D.C. and Wall Street are still watching for a delayed price impact. Some products have already seen cost increases tied to tariffs. But overall, inflation hasn’t spiked yet, and there are many reasons why.

First, the most extreme “liberation day” tariffs haven’t taken effect yet because Trump’s team kept delaying them. Second, tariffs often take time to filter through the supply chain. And third, companies rushed to stockpile goods earlier this year, which has temporarily helped to stabilize prices.

When asked if price hikes were inevitable, Stephen circled back to his meteor metaphor. “Won’t it come eventually?” he repeated the anchor’s question, then said, “I mean, sure, eventually, you know, a meteor is going to strike or whatever. But we’ve been waiting many months now, and that evidence has just not emerged.”

As for the new tariff deadline, it’s now just a few weeks away. Trump’s statement was clearly intended to send a warning: countries that haven’t reached a deal by August 1 will be hit with full duties. And based on the tone of Tuesday’s post, the administration is not interested in hearing more excuses.

The final report released by the council said that starting in March, the cost of imported components dropped while total prices either stayed flat or edged up slightly.

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