Bitcoin Bulls Eye New ATH by H2 2025—Institutional Tsunami Approaches

Wall Street's favorite digital gold is back—and this time, the big players are loading up.

Bitcoin's gearing up for a historic second-half rally as institutional FOMO reaches fever pitch. The crypto king hasn't just survived its latest halving cycle—it's primed to shatter records with a perfect storm of ETF inflows, shrinking supply, and yes, even some old-fashioned retail greed.

When the suits start chasing volatility, you know we're in for a ride. Just don't ask them to explain the blockchain—they're too busy reciting 'number go up' mantras between yacht payments.

Public companies set up for massive Bitcoin inflows

A group of firms now known as bitcoin treasury companies is driving that push. These are publicly traded companies that either already hold Bitcoin as a main asset or are planning to.

Some of them, including Nakamoto, Twenty One, and Strive Asset Management, are going through mergers with other listed companies to raise capital by offering equity and using it to buy Bitcoin.

Steven Lubka, the VP of investor relations at Nakamoto, told CNBC that a lot of that capital hasn’t even touched the market yet. “They’re waiting on SEC approval on the mergers, so there’s way more money that’s coming, that’s trying to buy Bitcoin but has not currently bought it,” Lubka said. “We have not yet seen the full impact of even just the money that’s already lined up.”

Lubka said adoption isn’t the only driver right now. The broader macro setup is turning bullish too. He pointed to rising fiscal spending, surging stock prices, and a White House under Donald TRUMP that appears supportive of crypto.

“Bitcoin’s maturity as an asset class intersects with a huge amount of capital coming in through new financialization vehicles,” Lubka said, referring to the treasury companies. “You’re going to see a TON of fiscal spending, and you also have an administration that’s pro-Bitcoin,” he added. “These four factors are going to intersect together to produce a pretty material bull market.”

Legislation and Fed drama add fuel for Q3 surge

Bitcoin’s next leg higher could be helped by Washington. Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the political landscape could play a major role in the third quarter.

If President Trump replaces Jerome Powell as Fed chair, markets could start betting on earlier rate cuts, which may boost investor confidence in the central bank’s independence.

Kendrick also flagged a potential law: the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill now working its way through Congress. He believes it could pass in Q3 and trigger a ton of new retail demand. “It could encourage more retail investors to make their first investments in crypto, with Bitcoin the prime beneficiary,” Kendrick wrote in a research note last week.

But not everyone’s completely calm. Kendrick said prices could get messy around late September because of fears tied to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. In that cycle, the coin usually dumps around 18 months after a halving, when the rate of new supply is slashed.

The last halving happened in April 2024, which puts that potential correction window directly into H2. Still, Kendrick isn’t backing off his forecast. He believes the current demand, especially from ETFs and treasury companies, will be enough to hold up the price even if some long-term holders start unloading.

“The key this time will be whether increased ETF and Bitcoin treasury flows are enough to offset any other selling by long-term holders,” Kendrick said. “We think they will be.”

By Kendrick’s estimate, Bitcoin could rise to $135,000 by the end of Q3, and then finish the year at $200,000. He expects that once investors stop worrying about another cycle repeat, the crypto will keep rising. “Once market concerns about this have passed, we expect Bitcoin to continue to rise to our end-Q4 forecast,” he wrote.

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