Trump’s Trade Gambit: India Tariff Deal in Focus as Japan Gets Cold Shoulder

Trade winds shift as the former president targets subcontinental markets—while leaving Tokyo out in the cold.

The Art of the (Trade) Deal

Fresh off his 2024 victory, Trump's team is negotiating what could be the largest bilateral tariff reduction with India since the Nixon administration. No such love for Japan—their auto exports remain firmly in the crosshairs.

Geopolitical Chess on an Economic Board

Insiders whisper about tech transfer agreements sweetening the pot. Meanwhile, Japanese manufacturers scramble to avoid becoming collateral damage in America's latest protectionist spree—because nothing says 'free markets' like punitive import taxes.

The Cynic's Corner

Wall Street analysts predict the usual: short-term stock pops, long-term supply chain chaos, and at least three hedge funds front-running the deal. Just another Tuesday in globalized capitalism.

Bessent indicates the possibility of the US-India trade talks coming to an end

US-India discussions have stalled over differences in import duties for things like auto parts, steel, and farm goods before a deadline when Trump threatens to retaliate with tariffs.

In an earlier appearance on Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and India are close to a deal that would reduce tariffs on American imports to the South Asian country and prevent India’s levies from rising sharply next week.

In response to a question about progress on trade negotiations, Bessent noted that they are very close with India.

In the meantime, Indian officials moved meetings with their US counterparts in Washington last week until Monday to finalize a trade deal between the US President Donald Trump’s administration. They also aimed to tackle ongoing concerns from both sides, two Indian government sources said.

The Trump administration will try to secure trade deals with countries, including India, before Japan, in the days before the July 9 deadline, said a WHITE House official familiar with the talks.

Notably, India is among over a dozen countries actively discussing with the Trump team to prevent a sharp increase in tariff rates that could come as soon as July 9 after a 90-day tariff pause. India could see its new “reciprocal” tariff rate increase to 27% from 10%.

In an event in New York, the Minister of External Affairs of India, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, mentioned that they were deep into a complex trade negotiation. He expressed Optimism about passing the halfway point of the talks.

Jaishankar, currently in the US for a meeting with the China-focused Quad group, said he hoped they could reach a successful ending.

The minister, however, expressed,  “I can’t promise it will happen since there’s another party involved in the talks.” He also mentioned that both sides needed to be willing to compromise and find common ground. 

Trump expresses a lack of confidence in reaching an agreement with Japan

Different countries have different agendas for trade deals, Bessent explained. This included Japan, which the president complained about on two consecutive days.

While they were working with Japan, the US president said he was not confident they would agree. Based on his explanation, he had several doubts. He said this while heading back to Washington from a trip to Florida. 

Trump had said he might levy a 30% or 35% tariff on imports from Japan – far more than the 24% tariff he announced on April 2 and then deferred until July 9.

He claimed that Japan was not accepting rice grown in the United States, which he called an “easy” request from Washington, even though Japan sells millions of cars in the US. 

“I will write them a letter expressing our gratitude. We understand they can’t provide the services we need, so we will ask them to pay 30%, 35%, or whatever percentage we decide,” Trump said.

Only Britain has secured a narrow trade agreement with the Trump administration, agreeing to a 10% US tariff on many goods, including autos, in return for access to aircraft engines and British beef.

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