Bernstein Analysts Double Down: Coinbase Primed for 50% Surge Despite Market Skepticism

Wall Street's crypto believers are back at it—Bernstein analysts just slapped a bullish 50% upside target on Coinbase, betting big on the exchange's resilience. Here's why the smart money thinks retail traders will keep fueling the fire.

The Bull Case: Liquidity, Listings, and Leverage

Coinbase's institutional-grade custody solutions and relentless altcoin listings make it the go-to ramp for both degens and hedge funds. Bernstein cites sticky revenue streams—like that sweet 1% custody fee—as buffers against crypto's notorious volatility.

Regulatory Roulette Plays in Their Favor

While rivals get tangled in SEC lawsuits, Coinbase's aggressive compliance stance lets it monetize regulatory chaos. The analysts note its lobbying budget could buy a small island—and it's paying off.

Cynical Footnote: Of course, this assumes crypto winter doesn't return before Bernstein's bonus season. Happy trading!

Bernstein says Coinbase has more room to grow

Gautam pushed back against bearish takes that claim new competition will eat into Coinbase’s user base. He said Coinbase’s market share is still intact, and that incoming platforms from traditional brokerages won’t offer full product suites—something Coinbase already has. 

That, he said, keeps them “less competitive.” He also flagged two U.S. bills in progress that could give Coinbase a leg up: the GENIUS Act, which WOULD impose rules on stablecoins, and the CLARITY Act, designed to provide regulatory structure for crypto.

Beyond that, Gautam said the company’s move into crypto futures trading is a major opportunity. Coinbase already has Bitcoin and Ethereum futures available and is now preparing to launch perpetual futures, a product that sees heavy interest globally but has limited support in the U.S. market. He said this market has “massive headroom” and could bring in serious volumes once Coinbase gets fully up and running.

His updated price target is based on an internal estimate that Coinbase could generate around $9.5 billion in total revenue in 2025. That estimate factors in the broader spot and derivatives businesses, institutional activity, and potential upside from legislation.

After the report hit, Coinbase shares climbed 3.1% in premarket trading.

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