Oil Surges as Asian Markets Stabilize Amid Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire
Black gold's rally defies gravity—again—while Asia's trading floors pretend everything's normal. Here's the breakdown:
Geopolitical Band-Aid Holds (For Now)
A shaky truce between Tehran and Jerusalem temporarily soothed risk appetites. Traders celebrated by doing what they do best: overreacting to headlines and underreacting to structural risks.
Commodities Play Their Usual Role
Crude prices punched upward—because nothing says 'stability' like volatile energy markets dictating global sentiment. Meanwhile, Asian exchanges mimicked calm waters while hedge funds quietly repositioned.
The Real Story Behind the Headlines
Markets aren't 'steady'—they're sedated on central bank liquidity and geopolitical theatrics. This ceasefire won't last, and neither will the illusion of control. But hey—enjoy the green candles while they last.
Asian markets stabilized while the dollar dipped
Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 were flat, while Taiwan’s TAIEX climbed 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ROSE 0.6%, and China’s CSI 300 eased 0.1%. U.S. stock futures showed little movement.
Currency and bond markets reflected the easing risk of an oil-driven inflation spike. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield slid to 3.787%, its lowest since May 8, while the dollar index dipped 0.1% to 97.854.
Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.1% to 144.70, and the euro gained 0.1% to $1.1625, approaching Tuesday’s peak of $1.1641—the highest level since October 2021.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned on Tuesday that rising tariffs could begin to push up inflation over the summer, remarks made during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
Meanwhile, a separate report showed U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in June, pointing to a cooling labour market.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly an 18% probability of a Fed rate cut in July.
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