Russia’s Oil Exports Plunge Again—Surge Profits Vanish Like Magic

Moscow’s energy cash cow stumbles as export volumes tank—again. Remember those windfall profits from last quarter’s price spike? Gone. Poof. Vanished into the Kremlin’s budgetary black hole.

Here’s the kicker: This isn’t just bad luck. It’s a self-inflicted wound. Sanctions? Check. Infrastructure decay? Double-check. And let’s not forget the classic ‘putting all your eggs in the fossil fuel basket’ strategy—always a crowd-pleaser until renewables eat your lunch.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ ministers are probably laughing into their $200/lobster lunches. Because nothing says ‘stable commodity market’ like watching your biggest competitor trip over its own feet—repeatedly.

Closing thought: Maybe next time diversify before the SWIFT system cuts you off? Just a radical idea from the folks who brought you Bitcoin at $60k.

Primorsk slowdown deepens losses despite oil price bump

In total, 28 tankers left Russian ports with 20.89 million barrels of oil during the seven days to June 22. That’s down from 30 tankers and 22.42 million barrels the week before. Even though the Arctic port of Murmansk ramped up its own shipments, it wasn’t enough to offset losses from Kozmino and Primorsk.

Russia also sent one shipment of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, and another from Ust-Luga, also in the Baltic.

Despite falling volumes, Russia earned $1.38 billion in oil revenue for the week. That’s a $40 million increase from the week before. The cash gain was driven by rising prices, not more exports. 

The average weekly price of Russian crude jumped by nearly $7 a barrel, as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated into direct missile attacks, followed by US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But by the time the week closed, prices were already retreating fast. Iran, Israel, and the US agreed to a ceasefire.

Still, that short burst of conflict pushed prices up for long enough to lift Russia’s income. During that week, Urals crude from the Baltic and Black Sea increased by $6.70 to $6.80, trading around $65 a barrel.

The ESPO grade from the Pacific coast went up $6.20, landing at $69.32. In India, Russian oil was delivered at $74.95 a barrel, a jump of $6.50, all based on pricing data from Argus Media.

Over a longer time frame, things also looked slightly better. The four-week average export price ROSE for the fourth consecutive week, with Urals and ESPO both gaining between $3.10 and $3.30 a barrel. Using this average, Russia’s weekly crude revenue was estimated at $1.31 billion, about 2% higher than the previous period.

Asian and Mediterranean flows show broader export pressure

Russia’s deliveries to Asian markets, which include ships with no listed destination, also dipped. In the 28 days to June 22, average flows to Asia stood at 2.77 million barrels per day, down from 2.86 million barrels per day in the earlier four weeks. 

That figure included 440,000 barrels a day from vessels either heading through Port Said or the Suez Canal, plus another 30,000 barrels a day from ships that haven’t disclosed where they’re going.

In the eastern Mediterranean, shipments to Turkey dropped too. For the same four-week period, Russian flows to Turkey averaged 370,000 barrels a day, backing off from the highest level seen in nearly five months. That decrease led to an overall reduction of around 20,000 barrels a day in exports across the whole eastern Mediterranean. The region includes Syria, where Russia has kept delivering crude.

Internally, refinery runs inside Russia have started to pick up again. Plants are wrapping up seasonal repairs, and output is climbing. From June 1 to June 18, daily crude processing rates averaged 5.42 million barrels, and they’re expected to stay at that level through the rest of the month. If that happens, it WOULD be the highest refinery throughput this year, and it’s already pulling crude away from exports.

So, despite a temporary spike in prices from geopolitical drama, Russia’s lower shipment volume dragged down the full potential of revenue gains. Delays at ports, unexplained drops in the Baltic, and stronger refinery demand at home are all squeezing what’s left of the crude export pipeline. Every barrel counts now, and fewer of them are hitting international waters.

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