Tesla’s Robotaxis Hit Austin Streets: Can They Survive Musk’s Overpromise Reality Check?

Elon's autonomous dream faces its first real-world test—and skeptics are already sharpening their knives.

Buckle up, Austin. Tesla's long-delayed robotaxis are finally rolling onto your streets, promising to revolutionize transit—or become Silicon Valley's most expensive sci-fi flop.

The hype vs. hardware showdown begins

Musk's track record of missing deadlines looms large as Tesla attempts what Waymo and Cruise couldn't: scaling autonomous tech without safety scandals. Early test footage shows cautious navigation—a far cry from the 'million robotaxis by 2020' fantasy.

Wall Street's watching (and yawning)

Investors remain unconvinced, with Tesla stock barely budging on the news. 'Another distraction from shrinking EV margins,' quips one short-seller. Meanwhile, crypto traders joke about Musk accepting Dogecoin for rides—because nothing says 'future of transport' like a meme currency.

Tesla needs a strong start with its robotaxis

The stakes are high, and the challenges are many. While Musk was making those “next year” pledges, rival Waymo was already rolling out driverless taxis in Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin and other cities. Waymo uses lidar, radar and cameras to navigate, a more expensive setup that nonetheless got it to market faster. The company just completed its 10 millionth paid ride.

Tesla’s sales have suffered from boycotts linked to Musk’s political views, and other electric car makers with competitive models have gained ground. Investors grew uneasy when Tesla lost about $150 billion in market value after Musk’s public quarrel with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The stock has since recovered a portion of its losses after Musk expressed regret over his comments.

Despite that, investors have remained loyal, in part because Musk defied the odds to build a standalone electric car company, and made shareholders money along the way. About a decade ago, in 2015, Tesla shares traded around $18. On Friday, June 20, 2025, the stock closed at $322.

On Wall Street, some are doubtful. Garrett Nelson of CFRA, an investment research firm, asks during a discussion with Associated Press, “How quickly can he expand the fleet? We’re talking maybe a dozen vehicles initially. It’s very small.”

Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein calls this classic Musk. “When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, that will be a success, but I don’t think that will happen until 2028,” he says. “Testing is going to take a while.”

Musk pushes robotaxis despite history of broken promises

It’s obvious Musk likes to create hype. In 2018, he told shareholders he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private at a big premium, but regulators later found he had no written deal, leading to a fine.

More recently, in May, he told CNBC that Tesla was seeing a “major rebound” in demand, only for an auto trade group in Europe to report that sales had fallen by half the following week.

He has also faced criticism for overstating the abilities of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, a name many say is misleading.

Drivers still must keep their eyes on the road, ready to take control at any moment. Federal regulators opened a probe last year after several accidents, and the Justice Department has an ongoing inquiry whose status is unclear.

Tesla has faced lawsuits over FSD, some settled and others dismissed. In one case, a judge ruled against the plaintiffs but noted they had not shown that Musk “knowingly” made false statements.

Musk counters that the robotaxis will use an improved Full Self-Driving system and will be safe. He says the service can scale quickly because of the millions of Teslas already on the road. Even an over-the-air update will let owners turn their cars into driverless cabs, earning money while parked at work for eight hours or even on vacation.

“Instead of having your car sit in the parking lot, your car could be earning money,” Musk said. He described it as an Airbnb model for cars: “You will be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet.”

He also notes that Tesla relies solely on cameras for navigation, unlike Waymo, which adds lasers and radar at a higher cost. In a shareholder call, he mused, “Tesla will have, I don’t know, 99% market share or something ridiculous.”

With Waymo’s head start and rivals like Amazon eyeing the field, such dominance may be a stretch.

Some analysts remain hopeful. Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, a noted Musk supporter, thinks Tesla’s scale could let it succeed. Even skeptics like Goldstein agree Musk has pulled off big achievements, which include selling high-end EVs, launching Starlink in rural areas, and landing an unmanned SpaceX rocket on a platform back on Earth.”

Maybe his timelines aren’t realistic, Goldstein says, “but he can develop futuristic technology products.”

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