Raoul Pal’s Bombshell: 2025 Crypto Cycle Mirroring 2017’s Meteoric Rise—Here’s Why
Crypto markets are flashing eerie similarities to 2017's parabolic rally—but this time, the rockets have bigger boosters.
Veteran macro investor Raoul Pal spots the patterns: retail FOMO, institutional inflows, and that familiar scent of irrational exuberance wafting through decentralized exchanges. The 2025 cycle isn't just rhyming with history—it's remixing it with institutional-grade leverage.
Will regulators finally catch up this time? Don't hold your breath—the SEC's still trying to define a security while traders pile into meme coins named after breakfast foods.
Raoul Pal sees similarities in the current and 2017 crypto market cycle
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin started trading around $1,044 at the beginning of 2017, before rising to around $2,187 by May 31. The premier digital asset went on to close the year at $14,156, signifying a massive rise of 1,255% from the price at the beginning of the year. While Pal predicts the same movement, he acknowledges that a weaker US dollar could indicate a slower crypto cycle, which means it will take time before it reaches its peak.
“With the dollar breaking down even today, it’s starting to suggest this may go into Q2 2026,” he said. Since the beginning of the year, the US Dollar Index has been down 8.995, sitting at 98.77 at the time of writing, according to data from TradingView. bitcoin and DXY are inversely correlated. This means that when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin becomes more attractive not just as a speculative investment but as an alternative currency.
Pal also added that macroeconomic data has been a primary reason why the crypto cycle has always shifted further back. “It’s like the whole cycle got shifted cause rates didn’t get adjusted; the dollar was sideways for some time,” he said. He also said that the current market may show signs of looking like the market in 2020 more than the one in 2021, suggesting that it could be at an earlier growth phase than many are predicting.
Bitcoin began 2020 at $7,174, but dropped by 27% in March to $5,227. The asset then rebounded 129% to hit $11,990 in August, before witnessing a 304% increase, ending the year at $28,993.
Pal added that the market needs to continue expanding to attract big players. He discussed his recent trip to the Middle East where he met with Sovereign Wealth Funds, adding that most of them were bullish on crypto. “The mandate across the entire region, from Saudi to Abu Dhabi to Dubai to Bahrain to Qatar, is AI and blockchain,” he said. He also added that things should evolve past just seeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, noting that nations need to start building their entire government infrastructure on blockchain.
Global governments have been making moves in the crypto sector since the beginning of the year. A typical example is Pakistan, with the country looking for ways to create a draft bill that could be passed in the NEAR future to regulate digital assets. In addition, the country plans to formulate regulations that will protect its investors and attract global players into its digital asset hub.
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