Trump’s New Iran Sanctions Threaten to Send Oil Prices into Chaos—Again
Geopolitical shockwaves hit energy markets as the US tightens its grip on Iran.
Crude's rollercoaster ride gets wilder
Fresh sanctions target Tehran's oil exports—because nothing says 'stable markets' like kneecapping a major producer. Brent crude futures already pricing in 5% volatility spikes as traders brace for supply shocks.
Middle East tensions = Wall Street's favorite casino
Hedge funds pile into oil derivatives while pretending this time is different. Spoiler: It's not. When the dust settles, retail investors will be left holding the bag—as usual.
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Trump extends crackdown to Houthi-linked oil deals
The same day, Trump’s Treasury Department rolled out a separate batch of counterterrorism sanctions, this time hitting a supply network supporting the Houthis, the Iran-backed militant group operating in Yemen.
This MOVE targets four individuals, 12 companies, and two vessels for moving oil and illicit goods to generate funding for the rebels. US officials said the goal was to cut off revenue pipelines feeding Iran’s proxy warfare in the region.
The news came just 24 hours after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites, an attack that prompted an immediate response from Iran, which launched missiles and drones toward Israeli territory. Both sides have refused to step back from the conflict, now a full week deep. Despite no signs of de-escalation, the White House said TRUMP will wait up to two weeks to decide whether to involve US forces in the Israel-Iran standoff. The market didn’t wait.
Oil prices tumbled Friday as traders reacted to the diplomatic tone from the WHITE House. Brent crude ended the day down $1.84 or 2.33%, closing at $77.01 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July — which didn’t trade Thursday because of a holiday — dropped 21 cents, settling at $74.93. The more active August contract ended at $73.84. Despite the dip, Brent posted a 3.6% weekly gain, and US front-month futures were up 2.7% for the same period.
Analysts watch Strait of Hormuz and rig count for clues
Traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical route for Middle East oil exports. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close it off during moments of crisis. So far, oil flows remain intact, but tension is rising. “The direction of oil prices from here will depend on whether there are supply disruptions,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
If Iran blocks the strait or if Israel targets Iran’s export infrastructure, crude could spike hard. Ashley Kelty, an energy analyst at Panmure Liberum, warned that oil hitting $100 a barrel isn’t off the table. That scenario WOULD add more stress to already shaky global markets.
Meanwhile, back in the US, there’s pressure on the supply side too. Energy services firm Baker Hughes reported that American oil and gas firms have now cut drilling rigs for eight straight weeks, the longest slide since September 2023. In the week ending June 20, the rig count fell by one, down to 554, the lowest figure since November 2021. The number of rigs is often used as a forward-looking indicator of future oil production.
Separately, the European Union has quietly backed away from its earlier proposal to drop the Russian oil price cap to $45, as reported by Bloomberg. That’s another reminder that even as the US under Trump clamps down hard on Iran and its allies, European governments are shifting in a different direction when it comes to energy control strategies.
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