Crypto Degens Are Now Betting on Global Conflict—Meet the Polymarket Gamblers

Crypto''s risk-hungry speculators have found a new casino: geopolitical turmoil. Polymarket—the decentralized prediction platform—is seeing surging bets on everything from missile strikes to regime collapses. Forget stocks—why trade earnings reports when you can wager on World War III odds?

War Games, Crypto-Style

Polymarket''s conflict-related markets have ballooned as degens leverage crypto''s borderless nature to gamble on events traditional bookmakers won''t touch. No KYC, no limits—just pure, unfiltered speculation on human suffering. Who needs ethics when you''ve got ETH?

The Ultimate Hedge Fund

Some traders claim these bets ''hedge'' their portfolios. Sure—just like betting on your house burning down ''hedges'' your property value. At least the blockchain brings transparency to the morbid economics of war profiteering.

As the lines between finance and gambling blur further, one thing''s clear: in crypto, even apocalypse is just another trading opportunity. Place your bets—the house always wins (until the nukes fly).

Crypto punters wager on the Israel-Iran conflict and outcomes

As geopolitical tensions rise, Polymarket has become an unlikely casino, where crypto degens are taking wagers on global conflict. Its top active markets are centered on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict.

Polymarket predicted an 88% chance of Israel striking Iran in June, a 71% chance of the strike hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, and an astonishing 99% chance of the strike happening by Friday, the 13th.

Following the accurate prediction of the strike, punters took to Polymarket to place more wagers. This resulted in the top prediction markets being dominated by the wagers placed on the conflict.

The market went as high as a 99% chance that Iran WOULD strike Israel in June, pulling in over $1 million in volume. Iran struck Israel in a military attack later on the same day, June 13.

It also estimates a 42% chance of the U.S. taking military action against Iran before July. That market has now pulled in over $1.7 million in volume.

Another market that has sprung up with the Middle East conflict is the spike in the price of Brent crude. It currently predicts a 44% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, which could further lead to global oil prices skyrocketing.

Another market that could soon gain momentum is the prediction about whether Iran will confirm the possession of a nuclear weapon by 2025. This follows Israel’s claims that its preemptive strikes were on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This market has gained over $154,000 in volume.

These markets operate in a regulatory grey area. After being fined $1.4 million by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket banned U.S. users from its platform.

Placing wagers on real-time geopolitical crises raises ethical concerns. Critics argue that it could be seen as trivializing suffering and incentivizing misinformation. Also, there are concerns of market manipulation, with the CFTC saying prediction markets are vulnerable to manipulation.

Israel-Iran conflict shakes global financial markets

On Friday, 13, 2025, Israel declared a special emergency following preemptive strikes on Iran, which are reported to have hit Iranian nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian generals. This event sent ripples through the global financial market.

With fears of broader conflicts arising, assets such as gold are seeing inflows. An ounce of gold has gained 1.2% to $3,444.70. Bitcoin dropped sharply, falling below $103,000 as investors fled risk assets; however, it quickly gained $105,700, a little bit off its intraday high.

Brent crude surged about 14% intraday, settling at about $75.54/barrel, driven by fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for about a fifth of global consumption flows and bordered by Iran, which also happens to be one of the world’s largest exporters of oil.

Global stocks were hit; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.4%, with the Dow industrials losing about 600 points.

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