US-China Trade Talks Relaunch in London: Geopolitical Poker with Crypto Markets Watching

Economic heavyweights circle back to negotiation table—just as Bitcoin flirts with $100K.

Subheader: Diplomatic Déjà Vu Meets Digital Asset Volatility

The world's two largest economies dust off their playbooks for another round of high-stakes bargaining. Meanwhile, crypto traders hedge bets on whether this sparks risk-on rallies or regulatory crackdowns—because nothing says 'stable markets' like geopolitical theater and algorithmic trading bots.

Bonus jab: Wall Street analysts already pricing in 3% chance of actual progress—but 100% chance of leveraged positions getting liquidated during the announcement.

The American delegation will be led by Bessent, Lutnick, and Jamieson Greer

In London, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the American delegation. They will meet Vice Premier He Lifeng and his team. The inclusion of Lutnick could signal U.S. willingness to roll back some controls that Beijing views as barriers to its long-term growth.

Last week’s Trump-Xi call briefly lifted hopes on Wall Street for lower tariffs, but investors remained cautious. Despite pledges to reshape American trade ties, Trump has secured only one new trade deal so far—an agreement with the United Kingdom.

The current U.S. tariff reprieve on Chinese goods is set to expire in August, unless Trump opts to extend it. The White House has indicated Trump may revert to the original April rates or even higher duties above the present 10% baseline.

President Xi appears to be betting that a reset in relations will yield concrete gains in coming weeks and months, such as tariff cuts, eased export controls, and a less tense atmosphere. After speaking with Trump, Xi said he expects the United States to “remove the negative measures taken against China.”

China continues to face economic challenges

Despite flexing its economic muscle by limiting rare-earth exports, China faces its own challenges. Persistent deflation and rising unemployment have fueled concern in Beijing, giving Xi an incentive to secure a lasting trade truce.

On Sunday, the official Xinhua News Agency published a commentary chastising the U.S. for viewing economic ties primarily through a security lens. “This thinking will become the biggest obstacle to win-win cooperation among all parties if it is not adjusted,” the article warned. It nonetheless left room for improved ties, noting that “China and the U.S. share extensive common interests and broad space for cooperation, and the essence of the economic and trade relations between the two countries is mutual benefit and win-win results.”

Following the presidential call, China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Trump had assured Xi of a warm welcome for Chinese students in the United States. Trump later described it as his “honor” to host them.

China’s rare earth shipments are on the rise

China’s outbound shipments of rare earths in May ROSE 23% from April to reach 5,864.60 tons, their highest level in a year, even as Beijing’s export limits on some minerals stalled overseas sales and sent shortages through global factories.

China first tightened exports in April on several rare earth elements and magnets, measures that forced parts of the world’s auto sector to halt production. Those curbs also played a major role in last week’s rare phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping.

Overall rare earth exports—from the world’s top supplier—climbed to 5,864.60 tons in May, up 23% from April, marking the highest monthly total since May 2024.

However, the April controls do not cover every type of rare earth product that China ships abroad. Monday’s figures do not break down exports by product, meaning the full effects of the curbs will only become clear when more detailed data appear on June 20.

Customs figures released last month showed magnet exports plunged by half in April. As a result, several European auto-parts factories stopped work last week, and some semiconductor firms warned they could run out of supplies within weeks.

For the first five months of 2025, China’s exports of the 17 rare earth minerals edged up to 24,827 tons, compared with 24,266.5 tons in the same period a year earlier.

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