Meta’s FTC Trial Finale: A Hail Mary Play or Calculated Bluff?

Zuckerberg’s empire throws down the gauntlet in courtroom showdown—but will regulators buy what they’re selling?

Behind the legal posturing: A desperate bid to keep the metaverse dream alive as shareholders check their evaporating returns.

Bonus finance jab: At least their legal budget isn’t as volatile as their metaverse ROI projections.

Meta points to TikTok and YouTube as its real rivals

Several Meta witnesses also pointed to TikTok as a key competitor.  The FTC has drawn a line between personal social networking, where people share with friends and family, and entertainment-focused apps like TikTok and YouTube.

Meta says that split misses how competition really works. It argues that the court should look at all the companies fighting for the same user attention, creator content, and advertising dollars.

In a November order, Judge Boasberg pushed back on Meta’s broad view of competition. He said accepting Meta’s idea would mean treating everything from watching a movie at a friend’s house to reading a book at the library or playing online poker as substitutes for its apps.

He said that kind of approach was too far-reaching. “Antitrust law does not require consideration of such an ‘infinite range’ of possible substitutes,” he wrote.

The judge said the FTC made strong arguments but at times stretched old antitrust rules too far.“At times,” he wrote, “they strain this country’s creaking antitrust precedents to their limits.”

Meta focuses on app engagement with user growth maxed out

During the trial, Judge Boasberg also listened to Facebook’s chief marketing officer, Alex Schultz.

Schultz said that Facebook and Instagram in the United States have already added nearly all of the roughly 250 million people who could use them.

The FTC noted that Meta’s growth rate looked slower simply because it had reached most of those potential users. Schultz said that real competition is about where users spend their time rather than just adding new ones.

Judge Boasberg later asked the FTC’s lead economic expert, Scott Hemphill, about this point.

He added that it would be “pretty hard” for Instagram to get much bigger in the U.S. than it already is.

Hemphill countered that Meta’s support did not necessarily make social media better for users. He said that without Meta’s guidance, the personal social networking market, not just Instagram, might have been stronger in terms of measures like user welfare and app quality.

Meta has argued that the FTC is living in the past by overstating the role of friends and family sharing on its apps. To address that demand, Meta rolled out “OG Facebook,” which shows a feed only of posts from people users know in real life.

Head of Facebook Tom Alison testified that on the main feed, users would have to scroll all day to see all of their friends’ posts because the Core experience in 2025 is driven by algorithmic recommendations.

The pending ruling could force Meta to break up its apps

Now, Judge Boasberg must decide if connecting with friends on social media still counts as its own market that Meta controls. Meta asked for an early ruling in its favor, but the judge said he was not ready to issue a verdict

If he sides with the FTC, the government would likely push to break off the apps that Meta bought, including WhatsApp and Instagram. Meta says breaking up its apps would hurt the innovation the FTC says it wants.

In a statement, Meta spokesperson Chris Sgro said, “After six weeks trying to make their case to undo acquisitions made over a decade ago and show that no deal is ever truly final, the only thing the FTC showed was the dynamic, hyper-competitive nature of the past, present and future of the technology industry. Meta is a proud American success story, and we look forward to continuing to innovate and serve the people and businesses who love our services.”

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