US-China Trade Deal Slaps 30% Tariffs on Citizens—Wall Street Calls It a ’Win’

Another ’historic’ trade agreement lands with a thud—main street gets the bill while hedge funds pop champagne.

Tariffs masquerading as protectionism: American consumers now face a 30% premium on Chinese goods, because nothing says ’fair trade’ like passing costs to taxpayers.

Meanwhile, institutional investors shrug—volatility means arbitrage opportunities, and your pain is their alpha.

Has Trump lost the trade war, or is China conceding?

Per one commenter on Schiff’s post, data from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) places average US tariffs on Chinese exports at 124.1% from 2019 to 2025. The Tax Foundation estimates that US households will bear an average cost of $1,300 due to tariffs in 2025.

“The deal just kicks the can down the road,” they said, adding that the short-term pause does very little for Americans if China’s currency valuation or the long-term trade deficit is not addressed.

In response, Schiff noted, “I doubt Trump goes back to 145%. But there’s a lot of added uncertainty.” The 62-year-old stockbroker predicted that American businesses would rush to place orders before the 30% rate expires.

There is no outcome. We just have lower tariffs for 90 days than the ones we already imposed on ourselves since Liberation Day. So nothing had changed other than we agreed to harm ourselves less for now. China has higher tariffs now then they did before Liberation Day.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 12, 2025

Over the weekend, officials on both sides described the Geneva negotiations as “positive.” US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that the agreement would help reduce the country’s $1.2 trillion trade deficit. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, an official involved in the talks, called the outcome “substantial progress.”

President Trump also celebrated the results through a social media post on Truth Social, claiming that “change had been negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.” 

“We want to see, for the good of both China and the US, an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!” the US president posted.

The White House Fact Sheet addressing the negotiations reported that America will retain some of existing duties. Tariffs imposed before April 2, 2025, including those under Section 301, Section 232, and those related to the fentanyl emergency and Most Favored Nation status, will remain in place.

When asked about rumors that the timing of the tariff reductions was meant to benefit Trump’s business friends, Schiff replied, “Most likely. That’s why Trump said 80% seemed right, knowing he already gave Bessent the green light to go to 30%. I’m sure Trump insiders made a bundle.”

Optimism or delay?

Statements from both delegations may have spelled that the war is coming to an end, but both countries are still in talks over several policies. If no concessions are made by the end of the 90-day window, the standoff will likely continue.

Chinese commerce ministry diplomat Li Chenggang stated that China has always pursued “win-win outcomes” in trade negotiations.

“Any possible deal to be reached will definitely be in the development interest of China’s own,” he told reporters earlier today.

The joint statement from the delegations confirmed plans for continued negotiations in the US, China, or a neutral location. Talks will reportedly now focus on increasing China’s purchases of American goods, almost similar to a commitment made during the 2020 trade war.

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