Trump Teases Future China Tariff Cuts—Traders Brace for Volatility

Former President Trump drops hints about reducing trade barriers with China—sending markets into their usual speculative frenzy. Wall Street analysts scramble to price in the political theater while Main Street shrugs.

Geopolitical whiplash meets economic reality: promises of ’future’ tariff relief do little for supply chains today. Another case of politicians treating global commerce like a leveraged crypto trade—all hype, no liquidity.

Retailers stop orders as factories halt production

Trump launched the new tariffs on April 2, starting with a 34% hit on goods coming from China. The White House later raised that figure to 145%.

Once those numbers dropped, American retailers immediately paused orders. Many Chinese factories froze operations because of the uncertainty. That’s what several companies told CNBC during interviews.

Some factories have started moving again, but only because they’re worried about missing the shopping season. “If you don’t start producing in the next couple of weeks, you’re going to start missing Black Friday and Christmas,” said Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, based in Shanghai.

Johnson added that “both sides are trying to be flexible to some degree,” and pointed out that restarting supply chains after a full stop is way harder than keeping them alive.

Many U.S. buyers tried to outsmart the tariffs by piling up inventory late last year, when they expected Trump to come back into office and raise trade duties. That move temporarily boosted Chinese exports. 

Shipments from China to the U.S. in March jumped 9.1% compared to the same month last year. At the same time, U.S. imports from China dropped 9.5% year-over-year. These numbers were based on CNBC’s calculations of official customs data.

But those early moves have worn off. The amount of container ships heading from China to the U.S. has fallen sharply in recent weeks, according to Morgan Stanley, which tracks shipping traffic.

Between April 14 and May 5, the number of canceled cargo trips ROSE by 14 times compared to the March 10 to April 7 period. That sudden drop signals that front-loading is slowing down fast.

China looks at talks while export orders collapse

During the interview, Trump pointed to economic weakness inside China as proof that his pressure campaign is working. He said China’s factory activity has fallen into the worst slowdown since 2023. 

The official purchasing managers’ index showed that new export orders hit the lowest level since December 2022, and it was the biggest decline since April of that year—when Shanghai was shut down due to COVID.

Still, Trump said China made some “positive” statements recently. He said any deal between the two sides would have to be “fair.” On Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it’s “currently evaluating” the option of trade negotiations with the U.S. It was the first time since the new tariffs were announced that Beijing suggested talks might be possible.

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