Trump Nears Finish Line on India Trade Deal—Wall Street Already Priced In the ’Win’

After years of on-again, off-again negotiations, the Trump administration is reportedly closing in on a trade agreement with India—just in time for someone to take credit before election season heats up.

Details remain scarce, but insiders suggest the deal could address everything from agricultural tariffs to digital trade barriers. Because nothing says ’21st century economy’ like haggling over soybean quotas.

Market reaction? Predictably muted. Hedge funds front-ran this announcement months ago, because modern finance runs on insider whispers and regulatory arbitrage.

Bessent and Vance say India deal is nearly ready

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed during a White House briefing that the U.S. is “very close on India.” He said the administration had also been holding talks with Japan, and he suggested the U.S. is also nearing a possible agreement with South Korea. “The contours of a deal” with Seoul are coming together, he said, without sharing specific terms or a deadline.

But India seems to be the focus. Bessent pointed to a recent meeting between Vice President JD Vance and Modi, saying the two leaders “made some very good progress.” He said that the discussions went well enough that an announcement on India could happen soon.

“A country like India, which has the posted and ready tariffs, it’s much easier to negotiate with them,” Bessent said. The structure of India’s existing tariffs is one of the things making this easier. They’re already written down, not hidden or vague.

That helps U.S. negotiators know exactly what they’re working with. That’s not the case with every country, Bessent added, and it’s why talks with India have moved faster than others.

The potential benefits are not one-sided. Raghuram Rajan, an economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told CNBC that India stands to gain a lot if it can get those tariffs lowered. “India benefits hugely if it can negotiate tariffs to a much lower level, even while some other countries have it at a higher level,” Rajan said. He explained that this could make India more attractive to companies, especially because of its huge local market.

Lutnick hints at another trade deal done

While all eyes are on India, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added fuel to the fire shortly after by claiming that one deal was already done, but it was not yet public.

Speaking to CNBC’s Brian Sullivan, Howard said, “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give their approval, which I expect shortly.” He refused to name the country, but the markets responded anyway.

Right after Howard’s comments, the stock market spiked. Traders saw the statement as a sign that real progress was being made. The details of the unnamed deal are still under wraps, and Howard didn’t confirm if India was the country involved.

When asked whether he was involved in any talks with China, Howard quickly said no. “My portfolio is the rest of the world’s trade deals,” he said. China is being handled separately by Bessent.

As for who else is being courted, Bessent told reporters that the White House has active talks going with 17 different countries. “We have 18 important trading relationships; we will be speaking to all of those partners, or at least 17 of them, over the next few weeks,” he said.

According to him, many of those countries have already come to Washington. China isn’t one of them. So far, the administration hasn’t signed anything official. Bessent said many countries have reached out about deals, but nothing has been announced. Right now, India, Japan, and South Korea are the top prospects.

Later in the day, Bessent went on Fox Business and was asked directly about Lutnick’s claim of a finished deal. He didn’t confirm or deny. “I’m not going to get ahead of the president,” Bessent said. “Nothing’s done until President Trump announces it. So we should wait to hear from President Trump over the next couple of days.”

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