Former President Donald Trump is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve officials for rapid interest rate cuts while Chair Jerome Powell faces an unprecedented criminal investigation over Senate testimony regarding Fed building renovations. Powell alleges the probe was initiated due to Trump's anger over the central bank's refusal to lower rates despite repeated presidential demands, creating a historic clash between monetary policy independence and political influence.

Trump presses Warsh to cut rates fast while Powell faces a probe

Trump has been pressing Powell for cuts, but the central bank has stayed put. Now he is setting a test for Kevin before he gets the job. If Kevin is confirmed and does not move quickly, Trump made clear he will see that as a failure.

Trump said Tuesday that he expected much worse damage in financial markets during the Iran conflict. He said he thought the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 could have dropped 20%, a bear market level, and added that he expected oil to hit $200 a barrel, which definitely sounds like the truth.

Instead, stocks held up better than he thought, and oil stayed far below that level. On “Squawk Box,” Trump said, “If you would have told me that oil is at 90 [dollars] as opposed to 200 I would be frankly surprised.”

He then pointed to changes in supply routes. “And you know what is happening? Boats are finding other sources. They’re going up to Texas and Louisiana. They’re going to Alaska, they’re going to other places. It’s an amazing phenomenon,” Trump said. He said he went into the war expecting a stock sell-off.

“Look at that S&P [500]. The numbers are what they were when we started this whole thing. I thought they’d be down 20% or down a very substantial amount,” Trump said. “When when it was down more a couple of weeks ago, I was surprised. I thought it would be down much more, and I thought the oil would be much higher, and I’m very happy to say that it wasn’t.”

Gas prices drive sales higher and push inflation back up

New Commerce Department data showed U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March after a 0.7% gain in February.

That was the fastest monthly increase since January 2023. The figures are adjusted for seasonal changes, but not for inflation. A jump in gas prices helped drive that gain.

The Iran war began on Feb. 28 and shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Late last month, U.S. gas prices moved above an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. AAA said regular gasoline averaged $4.02 on Tuesday, more than a dollar above the level seen before Feb. 28.

Economists had expected a big rise in tax refunds to boost spending early in the year, but higher fuel costs ate into those funds. Consumers are also running into higher travel costs, including higher baggage fees, and are likely to see more price increases as companies pass along transportation costs.

The biggest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades also fed into inflation. The Labor Department said consumer prices rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in February and the biggest yearly increase since May 2024.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.9%, the largest increase in nearly four years. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 2.6% from a year earlier, up from 2.5% in February.

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