A stark warning emerges as geopolitical tensions threaten to trigger a potential 10% market correction, overshadowing what was projected to be the S&P 500's sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth—its longest streak since 2011. Despite a month of conflict involving Iran, investor focus has now pivoted from strong earnings estimates to demanding hard proof in the actual numbers, with soaring energy costs posing a direct threat to corporate margins and market stability.
Last week gave traders a break after the truce between the two sides helped risky assets bounce hard. The S&P 500 Index climbed more than 3.5%. An MSCI measure of emerging-market stocks jumped 7.4%. Bitcoin rose almost 10%, which mattered to a market crowd that has been chasing risk whenever war fears cool off even a little.
Oil went the other way. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 13.4% through Friday. Brent settled around $95 a barrel after being near $112 in March.
The next trading stretch starts in full at 6 p.m. New York time on Sunday, when U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and oil reopen. Early trading in Sydney showed some caution. Safe-haven demand pushed the U.S. dollar higher against major peers.
Even with that, investors did not react to the latest breakdown in peace talks the way they did in the first days of the war. Japan’s Topix and South Korea’s Kospi cut their losses on Monday. Taiwan’s Taiex finished higher. European stocks were down less than 1%.
Some market strategists said traders may read JD Vance’s flight home as a pause in talks, not the end of them. Others said Iran still seemed open to more negotiations. Even people who think the blockade could bring risk back into markets still said the ugliest part of the war trade may already be over.
The calendar is packed. Monday brought Goldman Sachs earnings, LVMH sales, and U.S. existing home sales. Tuesday brings earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, along with sales from Kering and TotalEnergies, Japan industrial production, U.S. PPI, and the IMF world economic outlook. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes sales.
Thursday brings Netflix earnings, China GDP, Chinese retail sales, Chinese industrial production, euro-area CPI, UK industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. industrial production, and the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Washington. Friday brings the euro-area trade balance.
Goldman Sachs kicked things off Monday with first-quarter results that beat expectations, posting earnings of $17.55 per share, ahead of the $16.49 estimate from LSEG.
The bank’s revenue came in at $17.23 billion, above the expected $16.97 billion. Profit rose 19% from a year earlier to $5.63 billion, and total revenue surged by 14%.
Goldman said it pulled in its strongest quarter ever from equities trading, which helped drive the company’s second-highest quarterly revenue on record. Equities revenue rose 27% to $5.33 billion, about $420 million above the StreetAccount estimate.
Investment banking also came in strong, too, as fees rose 48% to $2.84 billion, about $340 million above expectations.
Revenue there fell 10% to $4.01 billion, which left it $910 million below the StreetAccount estimate. Goldman said results were hurt by “significantly lower” revenue in interest-rate products, mortgages, and credit.
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