Crypto Market Defies Oil-Driven Macro Shocks, Shows Surprising Resilience in March Amid Regulatory Milestones

Grayscale warns the crypto market remains far from recovery despite displaying unexpected resilience in March, as oil futures on Hyperliquid explode from near-zero activity to daily records—reshaping market dynamics. Bitcoin narrowly avoided a six-month losing streak with a last-minute rally, posting a mere 1.81% monthly return, while the SEC issued pivotal rulings on multiple crypto assets' securities status.

Crypto markets are pressured by the war in Iran

According to Grayscale, the war in Iran was the main market development for crypto and other assets. The main factor was the secondary oil price shock, which led to a 63% rise in oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices sparked concerns about inflation and predictions of a more hawkish interest rate policy across major economies. 

Gold, equity indexes, bonds, and silver all moved lower. In this climate, BTC was still not a convincing alternative, as the coin hovered below $70,000. 

As a result, crypto assets held within their usual range, without dramatic recoveries. BTC got a boost from Strategy’s purchases, adding 44.4K to its treasury. ETH held above $2,000, but remained shaky as open interest was low. Grayscale’s crypto index had a minimal net gain in March. 

Perpetual futures turned into the best performer in the past month

The best-performing sector in March was traditional assets with on-chain representation, led by Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures. The platform’s growth was driven by HIP-3 contracts, as Trade.XYZ added an S&P 500 contract in partnership with S&P Dow Jones Indices. 

Oil futures peaked on March 23, but Brent and WTI CL remain the busiest contracts on HIP-3. Hyperliquid also awaits increased open interest and trading with the HIP-4 upgrade. 

Oil also attracted a notable short position from Abraxas Capital. The fund retains its main short positions, despite the recent oil spike above $100.

The perpetual futures oil market closely tracks developments in the Strait of Hormuz for signs of relief from the oil supply disruptions. As a result, HIP-3 makes up to 40% of Hyperliquid activity, displacing other crypto markets. 

Brent open interest reached a peak of $1.5B in March, later retreating to around $400M after liquidations and closed positions. WTI oil held around $400M in open interest. The two contracts emerged from a top 10 asset to the most actively traded on HIP-3 in March.

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