Warning: $13.4B BTC Quarterly Options Expiry Could Trigger 10% Market Correction

A massive $13.4 billion Bitcoin options expiry on March 27, 2026, is flashing warning signs for a potential 10% market correction as traders signal extreme bearish positioning. With 194,400 BTC contracts expiring at a 'max pain' price of $74,000—far above current spot levels—analysts warn the resulting repositioning could violently sway the shaky spot market over the weekend. The quarterly event coincides with BTC trading at $68,683 amid 'extreme fear' sentiment, already down 21.6% for the quarter, setting the stage for heightened volatility.

BTC options trend bearish

BTC options showed strong downside protection, with accumulated put options open interest at $60,000. Options traders signalled a worst case scenario, where BTC would break through that range. 

Overall, call options at a higher price range dominate put options. Traders signal a market recovery may be more secure above $70,000, with call options accumulating at $75,000. The Deribit market shows BTC may have a long trek to recover that price range, and bearish trading may continue.

Ahead of the expiration event, options traders also closed some of the positions and rolled over for the next most active period. Traders shifted to out-of-the-money call options for June and September, signalling an eventual hope for a recovery. 

ETH options expire below maximum pain levels

ETH options trading showed more subdued activity levels. On March 27, $2.12B in ETH optional interest expired, with a maximum pain at $2,250-$2,300. The maximum pain levels shifted after last-minute contract rollovers. 

The put/call ratio flipped to 1.10 in the past day, signalling immediate bearish shifts in positioning, as ETH sank closer to $2,000. Overall, ETH options trading remained slower, as fewer holders were seeking downside protection. 

ETH put options show attempts at downside protection at $1,750 per ETH. Call options have their biggest share of open interest at $2,500, signalling a price at which ETH is seen as more bullish. 

ETH is preparing to close Q1 with a loss of 30.55%, after two months in the red and a small 5% net gain in March.

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