Insider Trading Allegations Explode as Unusual Market Bets Precede Trump’s Iran Comments

A major insider trading probe is underway after a coordinated $70,000 bet on prediction markets and suspicious oil futures activity immediately preceded President Trump's unexpected public shift on Iran policy. Eight newly created Polymarket accounts placed wagers on a March ceasefire just hours before Trump's social media post about 'winding down' military efforts, positioning the accounts for a potential $820,000 payout and sparking urgent investigations by lawmakers and market regulators.

Oil markets surge minutes before Trump’s announcement

The concerns grew sharper after unusual activity was spotted in global oil markets just minutes before Trump announced a temporary halt to airstrikes.

On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities” over the previous two days.

But market data shows that trading activity had already spiked nearly 15 minutes earlier, as traders placed 734 bets on WTI crude oil contracts.

Within one minute, that figure jumped to 2,168, worth around $170 million. In the same two-minute window, Brent crude trades surged from 20 to more than 1,650, totaling roughly $150 million in contracts.

Rachel Winter, a partner at the wealth management firm Killik & Co., told the BBC the timing was hard to ignore.

“Just before he posted on social media, quite a lot of people took out contracts that would allow them to profit from the oil price falling,” she said. “So there has been some speculation about insider trading. We don’t know if that’s true, but hopefully there will be some sort of investigation into that.”

Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy went further, claiming that around five minutes before Trump’s post, someone bought $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures while selling $192 million in oil futures.

He publicly asked: “Who was it?” Murphy, along with Texas Representative Greg Casar, introduced the BETS OFF Act last week, legislation that would make it illegal to bet on war or government decisions when the person placing the wager already knows the outcome.

The White House rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing.

A spokesperson said: “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless.”

Polymarket pulls nuclear betting contract

This is not the first time Polymarket has come under the spotlight. According to a Cryptopolitan report, the platform quietly removed a contract that allowed users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year.

The page now simply reads: “The event has been archived.” Before it was pulled, the market had already generated more than $650,000 in trading volume.

The platform also deleted an X post that had put the probability of a nuclear detonation in 2026 at 22%.

The removal came after a troubling episode on February 28, when the U.S. launched airstrikes on Tehran and other Iranian cities, and hours before those strikes began, six anonymous Polymarket accounts had already placed “Yes” bets on whether the U.S. would attack Iran.

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